(Spoilers for the newest Age of Imprisonment trailer, if you're looking out for that.)

I think everyone has determined that this guy:

is gonna be a Link/spirit of the Hero construct somehow, due to the fact that they play Fi's theme during the footage. But I haven't seen many people come to the conclusion that it's this guy:

And I'm going to 100% prove it.

Thoughts re: convergence

I think it makes sense to maybe do a couple split episodes or at least a decently lengthy chapter showing the Seekers at the Shadowlight Waypoint and Castle Torch en route to Dol-Makjar, as information regarding Aranessa's journey to the Golden Orchard will matter to how things play out once everyone's in one place. Meanwhile, I think it would be both apt and fun as hell for a combination schemers/soldiers group to infiltrate Obrimus Manor and rescue Mara the Wing. Thimble and Kattigan seem like obvious candidates; Bolaire and/or Hal can disguise themselves and talk their way in. I think Tyranny should go on this mission because it will be extremely enjoyable. Once Mara is free, she is a powerful druid, so being low on healers won't be too big of a deal. Honestly, it's also possible Mara might get sprung by House Einfasen given that they found her but now think that House Tachonis has sinister motives; however, that doesn't involve a dungeon crawl. I guess another option could be that Einfasen brings her to the Brethren Hall and gets Azune involved. Also, the play is happening imminently, which is presumably going to open some cosmic doors, which will also happen before the Seekers get here.

Of note: at this time (ie, last episode that aired was 4x25), everyone other than Teor is pretty much safe to hang out in Dol-Makjar, and Teor might be ok depending on what Wick does. Murray might be on House Halovar's shitlist privately, but on a public level she and Azune opposed the assassins who attacked Yanessa Halovar and saved the King of Timmony, whose assassination the powers-that-be DEFINITELY PUBLICLY OPPOSE. Hal and Bolaire were meanwhile disguised. This can all of course change depending on events in future episodes, which goes without saying, but like, at this moment I don't think the Schemers are in any sort of trouble.

Hard to predict anything about the Seekers during Convergence until we've seen them at Castle Torch.

Thoughts on the next three arcs:

Again, all is subject to change re: the events of Convergence, but at this time entertaining options other than the Golden Orchard and Houndsport (with Schemers still in Dol-Makjar) does not seem worthwhile, so my thoughts are:

Thimble, Teor, Julien definitely going to the Golden Orchard

Vaelus, Occtis, and Thaisha definitely going to Houndsport

Murray definitely staying in Dol-Makjar; Wick and Azune probably staying in Dol-Makjar

Of the remaining people, Kattigan makes more sense as a guide in Timmony - he has no real investment in the Golden Orchard, no desire to stay in the city, and I think narratively it's far more interesting to have him in a party of people who do not really know him. Tyranny is a wild card, but I think it's more interesting if she and Wick spend some time apart (plus we know Whitney likes adventuring) so I'd send her to Houndsport with Kattigan and the OG seekers sans Julien, though I'd be open to her going to the Golden Orchard as well. I think of Hal and Bolaire, sending Hal to the Golden Orchard probably makes more sense given that Amariya's disappearance makes it look weird if Bolaire leaves, whereas Hal is Aranessa's brother-in-law and Alogar's father, his play has closed, the group will be positioned well to head to Venatus as well if need be, and party balance is stronger that way. (@captainofthetidesbreath posted these same group splits if you want to read her take). I also think this maintains the fun "out of place" character element we had with the first series of arcs! Hal would be a schemer among soldiers the way Wick was; Kattigan (and possibly Tyranny) a soldier among seekers; and Murray remains a seeker among schemers.

Perhaps he is just really alert to danger.

yeah, the Great Sack of Trantor would be my bet!

in the books, there's a coup led by some local politician and then the metal surface of the world gets pretty well destroyed, the planet's citizens are killed in the destruction and starve to death after. (also in the books, there are still space elevators similar to the Star Bridge at this point and they collapse very similarly to how it went in s1. except more violently because the tethers slam into the planet so hard it sets off volcanic eruptions or something.) what's left of the emperors flee to a nearby planet which they imaginatively name Neotrantor.

so it's pretty damn destructive, and if the Cleons are getting evacuated out of a destroyed palace, they probably can't take all their vats of backup Cleons with them, so he very well could be witnessing the end of the entire Cleonic dynasty.

and despite the fact that he doesn't want to be Empire, he also doesn't know how to be anything else.

hear me out: the regret prison wasn't a regret prison to start with.

i find it highly unlikely that a regret prison would hold elgar'nan, whose defining character traits are arrogance and tyranny (i can maybe see an argument for ghilan'nain, but only because of andruil)

...offering to hire some scrappy lil street urchin orphan that had been trying to make his way into a gang out of sheer desperation, even if he fiendishly gives the kid a near-impossible task to prove himself worthy (learn to read first)

Not Kate seeing right through him and despite his denials sensing that he was trying to help the kid, even if it was by motivating him out of pure spite to succeed as a way of sticking it to Jude

(Completely irreverent and shitbrained summary of their convo here)

Kate: I knew it you were trying to help him Jude: .............. Pfft the fuck kinda help you think it is throwing him out there with like a 90% chance of dying >.> Kate: but you gave him a chance and made him think you thought he COULD do it haHA

Not Jude being hella impressed by the kid's cajones and telling him if he's got the balls to sneak aboard the ship he's got the balls to do anything he sets his mind to

Not Kate noticing Jude's slight air of being somewhere and sometime else when talking about how shitty of a time that kid will have trying to make it through some charity school to learn to read (Orphaned gutter rat Jude past I called it before I'm sticking by my prediction)

Not Kate realizing she's also motivated to stick it to Jude and prove herself to him out of spite for his jerkface attitude not Kate realizing maybe that's what he does on purpose to push people to succeed, fuck all if they hate him along the way??

Not Kate concluding that Jude may not be a good man but he can't even have the decency to be 100% Awful so she can freely hate him. AKA damn him for being Complicated and for making her kinda like him just a teensy bit

Not Jude being not only amused at Kate trying to analyze him but poking fun at her metaphorically and literally, pinching her cheeks and nose as he mocks her (sir just admit you like her already and you can get to making some rugrats of your own)

Not Jude having earlier been absolutely fucking livid at Kate for putting herself in danger and nearly getting shanked in the brawl

Y'all know we've got three separate illustrations of Blackbeard in the first season of OFMD, right?

You can see the tldr helpfully demonstrated in this three-panel remix comic from @asofterflag:

Figure 1. The three separate illustrations of Blackbeard seen so far, in chronological order from left to right. Also some text about sexy pirates.

Getting into the nitty-gritty: the first image is an extant depiction of Blackbeard with minimal editing (and is the one in Stede's book when he's talking to Frenchie):

Figures 2 and 3. Left: Blackbeard, as pictured by Benjamin Cole in the second edition of Charles Johnson's A General History of the Pyrates. Or so Wikipedia tells me. (Also, lol: six guns and a sword.) Right: Blackbeard, as shown opposite "Captain Kidd" in episode 3.

For reasons that I will expand on momentarily, I should also point out the following:

The background of the original image depicts three ships.

It moves too quickly to really clock, but we can be sure that at least one of the three ships is also depicted in the image that appears in the show-- you can see the mast touching Blackbeard's left sleeve, which is identically depicted in the original.

Keep this in mind.

The second image (what Stede shows Ed when they meet) is also based off an extant depiction of Blackbeard -- particularly in terms of the leg stance, trousers, bandolier, multiple weapons, smoking beard -- but there's been some hefty editing to get closer to what our Ed looks like:

Figures 4 and 5. Left: Blackbeard, as pictured by Joseph Nicholls in 1726/1736 in A General History of the Lives and Adventures of the Most Famous Highwaymen, Murderers, Street-Robbers. (Six or maybe seven guns. And a sword. And. A big stick.) Right: Blackbeard, as handed to Ed Teach in episode 4. (I count eight guns, plus a dagger, a sword, and Ed's bare right arm.)

Once again, I would like to point out the following:

The background of the original image only depicts one ship...

And the edited image, besides changing Blackbeard's appearance, has two.

So: Three. Two...

Again, keep this in mind.

But then we get to the third image. The one that Izzy rips out of a book and shoves at Ed, and that Ed then uses as a reference to fully embody his sad vampire clown image.

The third image? That fucker is completely original, and also very much our Ed.

Figure 6. Oh dang. Full Blackbeard. Fingerless gloves (hm), no guns, no knife -- just a sword and a skull.

And let me point out:

Only one ship now.

And. A lighthouse.

(This is Ed. Not the Kraken.)

But those ships, huh? Three. Two. One--

OH HEY remember how I said to keep some stuff in mind from earlier? YEAH.

So that first image of Blackbeard! The one with the matching ships in both it and the show version!

Let's go look at it more fully! In close up!

Figure 7. Oh hey look! Guess what's on fucking fire. Looks awfully familiar, where have I seen--

Figure 8. OH YEAH. IN THE PICTURE ABOVE STEDE'S BED. ONE OF ONLY TWO PIECES OF GODDAMN ART LEFT IN STEDE'S CABIN AFTER THE KRAKEN HAD IT PURGED.

YUP

JUST A SHIP

(ON FIRE)