#pregnancy speculation

I was so surprised by the mention of 2 Rods in relationships that I didn't notice Heidi's shirt (or Jill's clumsy attempts to cover it up)!

That shirt almost certainly says "after every storm there is a rainbow," and the date is blurred out by Jill. I'm pretty sure it says December based on a quick view earlier in the video.

And here's the shirt that I'm 99% sure they got off Amazon just by googling "rainbow after storm pregnancy shirt"

Two things of note!

It means Jill is actually trying to preserve privacy. She blurred the shirt and only mentions 1 grandbaby on the way (Nurthling #4). Jill is really bad at this, but there is an effort made that I can sort of appreciate.

Heidi must have had a miscarriage if this is a rainbow baby. Charlie isn't even 1 yet. It probably wouldn't have been Irish twins, but close.

Yeah, I saw it too. I'm not jumping to 'pregnancy' just yet. We know she gets really sick when she is expecting and I haven't seen her much on the couch lately. Besides, she has five children en will turn 30 this year. It's very normal, I think, for her to not be that slim anymore.

Katey Might Be Pregnant. Again.

Thank you to the many, many people who sent in Asks about this!

Katey (Nakatsu) Duggar has a public Pinterest profile. It’s definitely hers; her half–sister and Hannah (Wissmann) Duggar follow it. One of her "boards" is also entitled "Esther's shower!," and we know that Katey planned / hosted Esther (Keyes) Bates's baby shower back in September.

Direct your attention to the latest "board" on Katey's account, which is entitled "Christmas photo." Per Pinterest, Katey's latest pin to the "Christmas photo" board was 1 Month Ago. When you click into the board, you see that the most recent pin is... An idea for a Christmas–themed pregnancy announcement.

Now, Duggar Data isn't a Pinterest whiz, by any means. I'm not sure if "1 Month Ago" actually means 30 Days Ago, or possibly if Pinterest treats everything that happens in October as "1 Month Ago" as soon as November rolled around. Regardless, snarkers—Reddit, I believe, was first to find it—discovered the "Christmas photo" Pinterest page yesterday (November 2, 2022). So it's safe to say that Katey pinned the holiday–themed pregnancy announcement in October 2022.

I'm sure you're all eager for the data, so let's get on with it.

When is Duggar–Nakatsu #2 Forecast to Arrive?

As of November 3, 2022, Katey was expected to announce her 2nd Pregnancy on December 27, 2023, and give birth August 22, 2024. That's based on Jed + Katey's Marriage–to–Firstborn Spacing (394 Days), the Duggar 2nd Child Multiplier (1.7949), and a Maternal Age Multiplier for Age 25–29.99 (1.1928). All that works out to an Age–Adjusted Procreative Pace (AAPP) of 843 Days (27.7 Months). The Projected DOB (August 22, 2024) is 843 Days after Truett's DOB of May 2, 2022—so, there you go. Their ESOQ is 8 Children.

(Note—Savvy followers might be objecting at this point, like: "Katey isn't 25! She doesn't turn 25 until July 2023!" That is true; however the Maternal Age Factor kicks in because she will be Age 25–29.99 for her next birth.)

TL;DR—If Katey is pregnant, Jed + Katey are early for Baby 2. How early, you ask. Well, that depends...

If They Found Out In October...

Apparently, she was pinning announcement ideas—so, it seems like maybe she's pregnant. We have no way of knowing when she found out, but let's just assume it was close in time to the pins and go with mid–October (October 16, 2022). In the Pregnancy Announcement for Truett, Katey was shown using an "early detection" test, which is capable of detecting a pregnancy on Day 23 of a 28–Day Cycle. We can estimate that, if Katey used that test and found out on October 16, 2022, her Approximate Due Date (ADD) is June 30, 2023. The Duggar–Nakatsus announced at a mere 41 Days Along last time, so they'd be expected to announce on November 3, 2022. (Hey, that's today! Nifty.)

If Katey is due on June 30th, 2023, her child can't be GrandDuggar #29, since her Due Date is after Joy's and Joy is having #30.

If Katey is due on June 30th, she's 419 Days and 2.34 SDs Early for Baby #2. Her and Jed's Baseline Procreative Pace (PP)—without a Maternal Age Adjustment—would be 424 Days (~14 Months), which is faster than Kelly Jo Bates (456 Days), Kendra Duggar (483 Days), Michelle Duggar (491 Days), and Tori Smith (454 Days). The couples who are faster are Grace + Kord (366 Days) and Nurie + Nathan (414 Days). Factoring Maternal Age in, Jed + Katey's ESOQ would be 13 Children (+5 vs. Current ESOQ).

If They Announce On Christmas...

Okay. Maybe Katey isn't pregnant, yet. She's just planning ahead... Last time, Jed + Katey announced at 41 Days Along. Assuming they announce on Christmas of 2022, again at 41 Days Along, that yields an Approximate Due Date (ADD) of August 21, 2023.

Again, Duggar–Nakatsu #2 can't be GrandDuggar #29, since Joy is due in May and hers is #30.

If Katey is due August 21, 2023, she's 367 Days and 2.05 SDs Early for Baby #2. Her and Jed's Baseline Procreative Pace (PP), prior to Maternal Age Adjustment, would be 476 Days. That's a little slower than Grace Etbauer, Nurie Keller, Tori Smith, and Kelly Jo Bates, but still faster than Kendra or Michelle Duggar. Factoring Maternal Age in, their ESOQ would be 12 Children (+4 vs. Current ESOQ).

Conclusion

I may be pregnant.

you said, lol ok sure. you said, but I used a condom. you said, are you serious? I am not old enough to raise a child yet. you said, I don't want to change diapers right now.

classy. you think I want to change diapers? I am literally your age. and chill, I am not pregnant. you really think I want to be?

you said, who knows. you said, but for being very specific say that you're not pregnant. you said, and even if you are say that you're not pregnant with my child. 

A, I am not pregnant with your child. and if I was, I wouldn’t keep it. 

you said, okay. good for both of us. you said, I’m glad it didn’t come to that. you said, I don’t want to ruin this for anyone. you said, that’s why I only engage sexually with sane people. 

what do you mean sane?

you said, I mean if you were pregnant I can’t force you to abort. can’t force anybody. you said, that’s why I can only sleep with someone who is capable of rational reasoning. 

ii. 

I may be pregnant.

you said, shit. did you take a test? 

not yet, I’m scared.

you said, of course you are. you said, at this point you shouldn’t think of the worst case scenario. you said, just take the test first. 

but, M, what if I am? 

you said, if you are then I will ask you what you want. you said, if you say you want to keep it I would tell you I am not in a place to financially offer any support. you said, I’d ask you if you can financially support the baby and if yes then I would offer all other support. you said, and if you didn’t want to keep the baby, I’d fly down and I’d take you to the clinic and be with you the whole time. 

M, if I am pregnant, I don’t even know if it’s yours.

you said, okay, that doesn’t matter. you said, I’ll still come. 

iii. 

I may be pregnant.

you said, what?

mom, I’m not sure, it’s mostly just a scare. 

you said, it’s okay even if you are. it’s okay. I will take care of the baby. you said, you can go on with your life. 

no, if I am, I won’t keep it.

you said, I want a grandchild and it doesn’t seem like you are going to go the conventional way and give me one later. just keep the baby. 

mom, no.

you said, don’t laugh, I am serious. you said, I’ll disown you otherwise. 

umm seriously? come on. 

you said, fine. just don’t do anything without telling me. don’t do anything stupid that will harm you. you said, we will take care of it. 

iv. 

I may be pregnant. 

That's a great question and a fun task for me! I had considered doing predictions for Baby C but decided against it since I didn't think there was any chance we'd find out the name anyway. But let's go for it!

Name Predictions for Swanson-Duggar #2 - Boy

We have speculated that this baby is a boy because of the notable absence of bows in pics we have seen, although it's possible it could be a girl too. I will only include boy predictions in this post.

Previous Naming Information

Josiah Matthew Duggar and Lauren Milagro (Swanson) Duggar share one child together, Bella Milagro Duggar (b. 2019) in addition to this speculated baby boy. Additionally, the couple suffered a miscarriage before Bella's birth, and they named this lost baby Asa. The couple has confirmed they are doing an alphabet naming theme, so this baby's name should begin with C- unless they have lost another pregnancy prior to this one.

Preliminary Predictions

Since we have a clear, confirmed theme, I'll begin by making a list of C- boy names in the top 500 or so on the Social Security list from 2021, the most recent year data is available. I will be excluding Charles/Charlie from the list though because this is the name of John and Abbie's second child. Even though he was born after this speculated SiRen offspring, I don't think John and Abbie would have chosen a name already used by another couple.

Carter (#39)

Caleb (#51)

Christopher (#52)

Cameron (#62)

Cooper (#68)

Christian (#72)/Cristian (#331)

Colton (#74)

Connor (#97)/Conor (#462)

Carson (#98)

Chase (#125)

Cole (#132)

Calvin (#145)

Camden (#175)

Colt (#220)

Caden (#230)/Cayden (#289)/Caiden (#419)

Cash (#253)

Crew (#267)

Colin (#269)/Collin (#421)

Callum (#273)

Clayton (#278)

Cohen (#287)

Cruz (#297)

Cody (#312)

Colson (#322)

Cairo (#323)

Chance (#326)

Cade (#340)

Cyrus (#350)

Corbin (#366)

Callan (#375)/Callen (#458)

Cesar (#386)

Clark (#396)

Casey (#446)

Cassius (#485)

I think that gives us a pretty good selection, although there are already some I'd think they'd be much more likely to use than others. I will add another into the mix that wasn't in the top 500 but is Biblical and could still be a contender: Canaan.

As for the middle name, I would say it's pretty likely they would use Josiah's middle name, Matthew. Other contenders might be Dwain or Charles after Lauren's dad.

My Final Predictions

This is a little difficult because the styles and popularity of Asa and Bella are so different. It is nice knowing that there is a definite theme though. I would say the five most likely contenders for the first name in my opinion are Carter, Cameron, Connor, Caden/Cayden/Caiden, and Canaan. However, if Caleb were not the name Michelle had given to one of her pregnancy losses it would be my frontrunner. I don't know if that's enough to prevent them from using it, but it gives me pause at least. Cooper also gives me the same "nicknamey, dog-name" vibe that Bella has.

Overall, I think my top choice is Caden or some spelling variety of that with the middle name Matthew. Here is my list of top ten first and middle name combinations.

Caden/Cayden/Caiden Matthew

Carter Matthew

Connor Charles

Canaan Matthew

Cameron Matthew

Chase Matthew

Colton Dwain

Colin/Collin Matthew

Christian Matthew

Ohhh I missed this. Yes, she does appear to have one. No way to verify if it's real, although when people do fake Rodrigues stuff, they usually make it much weirder than the stuff on there. On the other hand, no one has purchased anything yet.

HMMMMM.