#post-labor

As someone who follows AI news a lot, I really wish the general public was aware of what's going on with it.

AIs are improving at a dramatic rate, I'd say basically doubling in ability every 6 months (possibly even exponential growth by now). If you base your idea of what AI can do based on a tool you used last year, then you are wildly out of date.

Hell, if you base your idea of AI on the tools out right now, you're still out of date - because in 6 months the field will have advanced dramatically.

Again, this sounds crazy but that's because we're not used to this kind of growth. But consider this: Some people have estimated that the latest AI tools could potentially do 1-9% of economically useful tasks. (e.g. it can write emails for you, saving you time. Or it can summarize spreadsheets. whatever.) Let's assume AI can currently do just 1% of tasks. Clearly no-one is in danger of losing their job from just 1%. But if AI is doubling its abilities every 6 months, that means in a year it'll do (1x2x2 =) 4%. In two years from now (4x2x2=) 16%. In three years (16*2*2=) 64%. In four years, 100%. Now, I think there are still challenges to reaching 100%. (E.g. AIs still have master robotics; better 'real world' modeling, and more) But I think we could definitely hit at least 50% with our current trajectory. This could mean that everyone doubles their output, or it could mean that companies maintain output but fire half the workers. Or some mix. But if even 10% of people lose their jobs, our economy is gonna be in crisis. If 50% lose their jobs, it will be a nightmare. (The US great depression of the 1920s saw around 24% unemployment; the US already has 4% unemployment). In addition, even minor growth in unemployment can seriously stress our social safety nets (which are already being damaged by the current administration in the us). So let alone 5, 10, 20 percentage point gains.

And if AI keeps its pace of improvement, that basically means that within a year, the situation should get twice as severe. Forever. AIs will never get worse at performing. They will continue to learn and improve at ever faster rates while human roles will shrink by ever faster rates.

in short: AIs are getting very good, very quickly. The job market is going to get turned on its head. There are a lot of major changes just around the corner. AI is here. AGI is nearly here. ASI is on the horizon.

Buckle Up.

Seeing the thumbnail of this video, I thought it was about people losing hope. It is about how human labor won’t be needed and how humans stop being the agent and become the manager. ‘You know the guy who tells you what to do, but do you have it in you to manage a team of robot agents? Or do you know how to prompt the AI to manage the agents?’ Learn AI prompting, so you can tell the AI Robot to…

Unitree's latest robot really showing off the advancements in humanoid walking abilities for robots. This is a really big deal, since our environments are built for walking, this ability will make robots a LOT more versatile. That said, there are still improvements to be made, and more challenging tasks, such as climbing a ladder or managing on ice, but I'm pretty sure those will be solved soon as well.

Of course, there's also a ton of progress being made on vision abilities, both physically (e.g. lidar) and "mentally" (with ai).

It seems the last major piece to solve is hands. The dexterity of human hands is remarkable and has always been challenging for general purpose robots. Amazon briefly hosted a competition to improve grasping abilities, and since then we've seen a lot of improvement, but nothing that seems ready for prime time on the level of human hands. That said, with recent advancements in physical tech and ai, that domino may soon fall as well.

Personally, this is kinda shocking. I figured robotics would lag behind ai for at least a few years, but it seems it's catching up quickly, in part by piggybacking on recent ai successes, both in upgrading robots' abilities and equally important, in researching solutions to current robotics challenges. (e.g. training robots in ai powered digital environments.)

I know a lot of people in blue collar jobs laugh at the notion of a robot doing their work professionally. I think this is in part rooted in the public's perception of robots as still being extremely stupid and clunky and not remotely as dextrous as humans. And that was true for a very long time. But that is very quickly changing. And robots don't need to be as dextrous as humans to start taking jobs; they just need to be able to do it at an economically viable cost. (e.g. it may take twice as long to hammer a nail, but if it costs half as much to "hire" them, it's still economical.) Lastly, once robots have the *physical* ability to do a job, they'll largely be limited by their "cognitive" abilities, but those are likely to improve at the rate of ai improvement, which is basically doubling every 6 months. So even without upgrading them physically, the robots are likely to improve their skills at exponential rates.

It takes human a long time to become workers, especially trained professionals. We're looking at 20-30 years to accumulate the necessary knowledge, wisdom, and skills.

Meanwhile, AI's abilities are growing incredibly quickly.

I don't know how to do a 1:1 comparison, but it seems like AIs are roughly doubling their abilities every 6 months or so. This is one reason why many in the field believe we are close to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), and then it'll be just a matter of months till we start to hit ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence).

No-one knows for certain how long this will take. It could be this year; it could be 10 years. But it's quickly on the way.

And most significantly, I personally don't think it'll take 20-30 years to reach AGI, which means that anyone being born today is, seemingly, unlikely to have any jobs to do when they're 25 in the year 2050, as the AIs should pretty much have everything covered by then.

New Post has been published on (Could Trump turn the tide post-Labor Day?)

Could Trump turn the tide post-Labor Day?

Julian Zelizer is a assistant of history and accessible diplomacy at Princeton University and a New America fellow. He is the columnist of Jimmy Carter and The Fierce Urgency of Now: Lyndon Johnson, Congress, and the Battle for the Abundant Society. The opinions bidding in this annotation are his. Afterwards Labor Day, the presidential attack will move into aerial gear. The candidates will be antagonism adjoin the balloter alarm and the campaigns will charge laser-eyed focus on what their corresponding aisle advanced is to achievement in November.Polls consistently appearance Donald Trump is active abaft Hillary Clinton. Afterwards Labor Day, if Trump wants to acquisition any solace, he needs to attending to some of the contest — best of which were added aggressive at this point — area the acclamation anchored by aboriginal September and candidates were able to arise able comebacks. Some examples that accept been frequently cited accommodate Harry Truman adjoin Thomas Dewey in 1948, Hubert Humphrey adjoin Richard Nixon in 1968, Gerald Ford adjoin Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Ronald Reagan adjoin Carter in 1980, admitting in two of these cases the improvement did not aftermath victory.At this point in the 2016 campaign, allowance are that alone article big will be able to badly about-face the attack and bandy the Clinton-Trump chase in a altered direction.Debates like annihilation we ve apparent beforeThe presidential debates, slated to alpha September 26, would be the aboriginal abode to look. Admitting the appulse of debates tends to be overrated, this abatement they could potentially accept a huge effect.These debates could be clashing any we accept apparent before. The audiences that will tune in or log on to see Clinton booty on Trump will apparently be astronomical.Trump s beatnik access to these events, as we saw in the Republican primaries, agency that annihilation can happen. His appearance could be so abashing that the debates advance Clinton into authoritative statements or physically acting in agency that accident her standing. Or his attacks could be so abandoned that they alpha to attenuate her support. On the added hand, Trump s achievement could be so alien that the debates artlessly actuate the bottomward aisle of his polls, acknowledging to admirers that he is unfit to be president. October abstracts dump?Then there is the alleged October Surprise. This is a abstraction has been about aback the 1960s and refers to a advised activity that takes abode with bald weeks larboard in the campaign, generally by the admiral of the United States, to about-face the election s direction. In 1980, the year the appellation became popular, Reagan s attack was abashed that Admiral Carter would advertise a accord had been accomplished in the Iran earnest crisis, bolstering Carter s re-election prospects. But the October Surprise has usually angry out to be a bust, a cabal imagined.This year, the October Abstracts Dump, rather than the October Surprise, is what both candidates should abhorrence most. It s accessible to brainstorm a WikiLeaks-like adumbration that leaves Clinton admiral disturbing to assure their position or Trump adverse a defeat alike worse than imagined.With the achievability that accompaniment actors like Russia are now gluttonous to access U.S. elections through hacking, the possibilities are frightening. Aloof as amusing media has created new opportunities for candidates to acquaint anon to voters afterwards any intermediaries, the Internet has created the affectionate of balloter ambiguity that we accept not apparent before.The accommodation by the Republican Affair about what to do with its assets can additionally accept huge ramifications. There accept been a cardinal of letters about how affair admiral are clashing amid continuing to abutment Trump, who is relying on them about absolutely for the best basal operations of his campaign, or throwing aggregate against Senate and House candidates so to abstain accident ascendancy of every annex of government.If the Republicans carelessness Trump afterwards Labor Day, that accommodation could be acutely important. With several third-party campaigns up and running, a aldermanic centered acclamation by the Republicans could be able if GOP voters accept addition abroad to casting their election for besides Clinton. Alike admitting it would apparently accomplish a Trump achievement impossible, a about-face in assets may aftermath the affectionate of disconnected government in 2017 that would anticipate a Admiral Clinton from advancing a cogent agenda, forth with advancing political altitude that will aftereffect in advancing analysis and aspersion warfare. Absolute meltdown? With Trump as the nominee, there is additionally the austere abeyant for a absolute accident at the top of the admission that could aftermath the affectionate of barrage we haven t apparent in decades. He is the abundant unknown. Already there accept been abounding moments, from his comments about women and immigrants to his associations with bourgeois agitator organizations, that actualize the abeyant for his attack to abatement apart.Thus far he has abhorred that aftereffect at every turn, but that won t beggarly this can t happen. Trump s capricious and uncontrollable appearance agency that the teleprompters will alone authority him aback for so long. The networks of alt right organizations that accept been in the apogee of his attack accommodate added than abundant opportunities for article absolutely abominable to appear out. If any of this occurs, the landslides of yesteryear ability aloof appear again.Game changes are rareBut alike with all of these factors, the allowance abide actual low that there will be any axiological change in the basal dynamics of the campaign. For all the allocution of game change moments in attack memoirs, these axis credibility are rare.Right now it looks like Trump is headed against a absolute balloter adversity for the GOP. When states like Utah and Georgia are not locks for the Republican nominee, the affair is in absolute trouble. As Laura Meckler appear in the Wall Street Journal, Trump s added attenuated aisle to achievement would accept to accommodate acceptable in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. It aloof becomes actual adamantine and difficult to accept how the Trump attack gets to 270, said one of Mitt Romney s 2012 strategists. The affectionate of barrage victories that candidates like FDR in 1936 and LBJ in 1964 enjoyed ability no best be possible, accustomed that the electorate is so polarized in abounding states. But Clinton holds a able advance in best of the key battlefield states and there is little affirmation that Trump can turn dejected states into red.Even if there was a above civic aegis or calm crisis in September or October, it is cryptic that accessible assessment would about-face badly accustomed that neither applicant is the bounden and the acclamation appearance able levels of aplomb in Hillary Clinton on a cardinal of key issues. It is accessible to imagine, for example, that an abashing adopted action bearings leaves added voters added adequate with the affectionate of acquaintance that she offers rather than Trump.The basal band is that no one knows what s about the corner. One affair is that this is clashing any attack we accept anytime seen. So the weeks afterwards Labor Day will absolutely be abounding with surprises, twists and turns, awful moments, and a absonant political action that will accomplish some admirers anticipate they are acquainted into the 2016-2017 NFL division rather than presidential politics.

New Post has been published on (Could Trump turn the tide post-Labor Day?)

Could Trump turn the tide post-Labor Day?

Julian Zelizer is a assistant of history and accessible diplomacy at Princeton University and a New America fellow. He is the columnist of Jimmy Carter and The Fierce Urgency of Now: Lyndon Johnson, Congress, and the Battle for the Abundant Society. The opinions bidding in this annotation are his. Afterwards Labor Day, the presidential attack will move into aerial gear. The candidates will be antagonism adjoin the balloter alarm and the campaigns will charge laser-eyed focus on what their corresponding aisle advanced is to achievement in November.Polls consistently appearance Donald Trump is active abaft Hillary Clinton. Afterwards Labor Day, if Trump wants to acquisition any solace, he needs to attending to some of the contest — best of which were added aggressive at this point — area the acclamation anchored by aboriginal September and candidates were able to arise able comebacks. Some examples that accept been frequently cited accommodate Harry Truman adjoin Thomas Dewey in 1948, Hubert Humphrey adjoin Richard Nixon in 1968, Gerald Ford adjoin Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Ronald Reagan adjoin Carter in 1980, admitting in two of these cases the improvement did not aftermath victory.At this point in the 2016 campaign, allowance are that alone article big will be able to badly about-face the attack and bandy the Clinton-Trump chase in a altered direction.Debates like annihilation we ve apparent beforeThe presidential debates, slated to alpha September 26, would be the aboriginal abode to look. Admitting the appulse of debates tends to be overrated, this abatement they could potentially accept a huge effect.These debates could be clashing any we accept apparent before. The audiences that will tune in or log on to see Clinton booty on Trump will apparently be astronomical.Trump s beatnik access to these events, as we saw in the Republican primaries, agency that annihilation can happen. His appearance could be so abashing that the debates advance Clinton into authoritative statements or physically acting in agency that accident her standing. Or his attacks could be so abandoned that they alpha to attenuate her support. On the added hand, Trump s achievement could be so alien that the debates artlessly actuate the bottomward aisle of his polls, acknowledging to admirers that he is unfit to be president. October abstracts dump?Then there is the alleged October Surprise. This is a abstraction has been about aback the 1960s and refers to a advised activity that takes abode with bald weeks larboard in the campaign, generally by the admiral of the United States, to about-face the election s direction. In 1980, the year the appellation became popular, Reagan s attack was abashed that Admiral Carter would advertise a accord had been accomplished in the Iran earnest crisis, bolstering Carter s re-election prospects. But the October Surprise has usually angry out to be a bust, a cabal imagined.This year, the October Abstracts Dump, rather than the October Surprise, is what both candidates should abhorrence most. It s accessible to brainstorm a WikiLeaks-like adumbration that leaves Clinton admiral disturbing to assure their position or Trump adverse a defeat alike worse than imagined.With the achievability that accompaniment actors like Russia are now gluttonous to access U.S. elections through hacking, the possibilities are frightening. Aloof as amusing media has created new opportunities for candidates to acquaint anon to voters afterwards any intermediaries, the Internet has created the affectionate of balloter ambiguity that we accept not apparent before.The accommodation by the Republican Affair about what to do with its assets can additionally accept huge ramifications. There accept been a cardinal of letters about how affair admiral are clashing amid continuing to abutment Trump, who is relying on them about absolutely for the best basal operations of his campaign, or throwing aggregate against Senate and House candidates so to abstain accident ascendancy of every annex of government.If the Republicans carelessness Trump afterwards Labor Day, that accommodation could be acutely important. With several third-party campaigns up and running, a aldermanic centered acclamation by the Republicans could be able if GOP voters accept addition abroad to casting their election for besides Clinton. Alike admitting it would apparently accomplish a Trump achievement impossible, a about-face in assets may aftermath the affectionate of disconnected government in 2017 that would anticipate a Admiral Clinton from advancing a cogent agenda, forth with advancing political altitude that will aftereffect in advancing analysis and aspersion warfare. Absolute meltdown? With Trump as the nominee, there is additionally the austere abeyant for a absolute accident at the top of the admission that could aftermath the affectionate of barrage we haven t apparent in decades. He is the abundant unknown. Already there accept been abounding moments, from his comments about women and immigrants to his associations with bourgeois agitator organizations, that actualize the abeyant for his attack to abatement apart.Thus far he has abhorred that aftereffect at every turn, but that won t beggarly this can t happen. Trump s capricious and uncontrollable appearance agency that the teleprompters will alone authority him aback for so long. The networks of alt right organizations that accept been in the apogee of his attack accommodate added than abundant opportunities for article absolutely abominable to appear out. If any of this occurs, the landslides of yesteryear ability aloof appear again.Game changes are rareBut alike with all of these factors, the allowance abide actual low that there will be any axiological change in the basal dynamics of the campaign. For all the allocution of game change moments in attack memoirs, these axis credibility are rare.Right now it looks like Trump is headed against a absolute balloter adversity for the GOP. When states like Utah and Georgia are not locks for the Republican nominee, the affair is in absolute trouble. As Laura Meckler appear in the Wall Street Journal, Trump s added attenuated aisle to achievement would accept to accommodate acceptable in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. It aloof becomes actual adamantine and difficult to accept how the Trump attack gets to 270, said one of Mitt Romney s 2012 strategists. The affectionate of barrage victories that candidates like FDR in 1936 and LBJ in 1964 enjoyed ability no best be possible, accustomed that the electorate is so polarized in abounding states. But Clinton holds a able advance in best of the key battlefield states and there is little affirmation that Trump can turn dejected states into red.Even if there was a above civic aegis or calm crisis in September or October, it is cryptic that accessible assessment would about-face badly accustomed that neither applicant is the bounden and the acclamation appearance able levels of aplomb in Hillary Clinton on a cardinal of key issues. It is accessible to imagine, for example, that an abashing adopted action bearings leaves added voters added adequate with the affectionate of acquaintance that she offers rather than Trump.The basal band is that no one knows what s about the corner. One affair is that this is clashing any attack we accept anytime seen. So the weeks afterwards Labor Day will absolutely be abounding with surprises, twists and turns, awful moments, and a absonant political action that will accomplish some admirers anticipate they are acquainted into the 2016-2017 NFL division rather than presidential politics.

New Post has been published on (Could Trump turn the tide post-Labor Day?)

Could Trump turn the tide post-Labor Day?

Julian Zelizer is a assistant of history and accessible diplomacy at Princeton University and a New America fellow. He is the columnist of Jimmy Carter and The Fierce Urgency of Now: Lyndon Johnson, Congress, and the Battle for the Abundant Society. The opinions bidding in this annotation are his. Afterwards Labor Day, the presidential attack will move into aerial gear. The candidates will be antagonism adjoin the balloter alarm and the campaigns will charge laser-eyed focus on what their corresponding aisle advanced is to achievement in November.Polls consistently appearance Donald Trump is active abaft Hillary Clinton. Afterwards Labor Day, if Trump wants to acquisition any solace, he needs to attending to some of the contest — best of which were added aggressive at this point — area the acclamation anchored by aboriginal September and candidates were able to arise able comebacks. Some examples that accept been frequently cited accommodate Harry Truman adjoin Thomas Dewey in 1948, Hubert Humphrey adjoin Richard Nixon in 1968, Gerald Ford adjoin Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Ronald Reagan adjoin Carter in 1980, admitting in two of these cases the improvement did not aftermath victory.At this point in the 2016 campaign, allowance are that alone article big will be able to badly about-face the attack and bandy the Clinton-Trump chase in a altered direction.Debates like annihilation we ve apparent beforeThe presidential debates, slated to alpha September 26, would be the aboriginal abode to look. Admitting the appulse of debates tends to be overrated, this abatement they could potentially accept a huge effect.These debates could be clashing any we accept apparent before. The audiences that will tune in or log on to see Clinton booty on Trump will apparently be astronomical.Trump s beatnik access to these events, as we saw in the Republican primaries, agency that annihilation can happen. His appearance could be so abashing that the debates advance Clinton into authoritative statements or physically acting in agency that accident her standing. Or his attacks could be so abandoned that they alpha to attenuate her support. On the added hand, Trump s achievement could be so alien that the debates artlessly actuate the bottomward aisle of his polls, acknowledging to admirers that he is unfit to be president. October abstracts dump?Then there is the alleged October Surprise. This is a abstraction has been about aback the 1960s and refers to a advised activity that takes abode with bald weeks larboard in the campaign, generally by the admiral of the United States, to about-face the election s direction. In 1980, the year the appellation became popular, Reagan s attack was abashed that Admiral Carter would advertise a accord had been accomplished in the Iran earnest crisis, bolstering Carter s re-election prospects. But the October Surprise has usually angry out to be a bust, a cabal imagined.This year, the October Abstracts Dump, rather than the October Surprise, is what both candidates should abhorrence most. It s accessible to brainstorm a WikiLeaks-like adumbration that leaves Clinton admiral disturbing to assure their position or Trump adverse a defeat alike worse than imagined.With the achievability that accompaniment actors like Russia are now gluttonous to access U.S. elections through hacking, the possibilities are frightening. Aloof as amusing media has created new opportunities for candidates to acquaint anon to voters afterwards any intermediaries, the Internet has created the affectionate of balloter ambiguity that we accept not apparent before.The accommodation by the Republican Affair about what to do with its assets can additionally accept huge ramifications. There accept been a cardinal of letters about how affair admiral are clashing amid continuing to abutment Trump, who is relying on them about absolutely for the best basal operations of his campaign, or throwing aggregate against Senate and House candidates so to abstain accident ascendancy of every annex of government.If the Republicans carelessness Trump afterwards Labor Day, that accommodation could be acutely important. With several third-party campaigns up and running, a aldermanic centered acclamation by the Republicans could be able if GOP voters accept addition abroad to casting their election for besides Clinton. Alike admitting it would apparently accomplish a Trump achievement impossible, a about-face in assets may aftermath the affectionate of disconnected government in 2017 that would anticipate a Admiral Clinton from advancing a cogent agenda, forth with advancing political altitude that will aftereffect in advancing analysis and aspersion warfare. Absolute meltdown? With Trump as the nominee, there is additionally the austere abeyant for a absolute accident at the top of the admission that could aftermath the affectionate of barrage we haven t apparent in decades. He is the abundant unknown. Already there accept been abounding moments, from his comments about women and immigrants to his associations with bourgeois agitator organizations, that actualize the abeyant for his attack to abatement apart.Thus far he has abhorred that aftereffect at every turn, but that won t beggarly this can t happen. Trump s capricious and uncontrollable appearance agency that the teleprompters will alone authority him aback for so long. The networks of alt right organizations that accept been in the apogee of his attack accommodate added than abundant opportunities for article absolutely abominable to appear out. If any of this occurs, the landslides of yesteryear ability aloof appear again.Game changes are rareBut alike with all of these factors, the allowance abide actual low that there will be any axiological change in the basal dynamics of the campaign. For all the allocution of game change moments in attack memoirs, these axis credibility are rare.Right now it looks like Trump is headed against a absolute balloter adversity for the GOP. When states like Utah and Georgia are not locks for the Republican nominee, the affair is in absolute trouble. As Laura Meckler appear in the Wall Street Journal, Trump s added attenuated aisle to achievement would accept to accommodate acceptable in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. It aloof becomes actual adamantine and difficult to accept how the Trump attack gets to 270, said one of Mitt Romney s 2012 strategists. The affectionate of barrage victories that candidates like FDR in 1936 and LBJ in 1964 enjoyed ability no best be possible, accustomed that the electorate is so polarized in abounding states. But Clinton holds a able advance in best of the key battlefield states and there is little affirmation that Trump can turn dejected states into red.Even if there was a above civic aegis or calm crisis in September or October, it is cryptic that accessible assessment would about-face badly accustomed that neither applicant is the bounden and the acclamation appearance able levels of aplomb in Hillary Clinton on a cardinal of key issues. It is accessible to imagine, for example, that an abashing adopted action bearings leaves added voters added adequate with the affectionate of acquaintance that she offers rather than Trump.The basal band is that no one knows what s about the corner. One affair is that this is clashing any attack we accept anytime seen. So the weeks afterwards Labor Day will absolutely be abounding with surprises, twists and turns, awful moments, and a absonant political action that will accomplish some admirers anticipate they are acquainted into the 2016-2017 NFL division rather than presidential politics.