#next decade

TALENTED ! Pt.1

Giveon - Heartbreak Anniversary 

Weyes Blood - Holocene 

Fhin - The Shape / Off Your Hand

Chika - Fairy Tales

Christopher Bono - Fox Hollow

Greentea Peng - Nah It Ain’t The Same

Hope Tala - Cherries

Bree Runway - ATM

Yola - Medley

Koffee - Pressure (Remix)

Foushee - single af

 - lower your carbon impact 

- get involved in a climate strike -vote for candidates who support getting to net 0 by 2050 

- please, dear God, 2030 is a point of no return 

- the literal world and all humanity is on the line

let’s look at the situation from past, present & future perspective

past: in late 1980s Japan had a real-estate crisis, similar to what US and rest of the world had in 2008-2010; post Japan’s crisis, BOJ dropped rates to almost zero but in last 30 years or so, despite monetary as well as fiscal stimuli, the govt. could not create growth in Japan’s economy & so the stock market stayed flat; 39K in Dec 1989 to 7.5K in Feb 2009 & current value at 22K - just about in the middle but hasn’t crossed the prior high ..!

fast forward to 2010: post world-wide financial crisis (2008 - 2009) coupled with real-estate crisis (2008-2010), US Feds dropped rates to zero, while ECB went creative to drop them to negative & BOJ followed ECB, thinking [mathematically] that if lowering the rates is the solution to problem, why not cross the line and go to the other side; i.e. negative rates, so the growth / inflation returns sooner … what the folks in Europe don’t realize that the growth they saw in first decade (2000s) was partly due to world-wide real-estate boom caused by low rates in US and partly by formation of Euro; but the effect of both have dissipated; i.e. Europe is currently facing the same growth challenges that they had in the 1990 decade.

present: one third of all world-wide debt is in negative rates, which is absurd, and will not end well, unless it is resolved before maturing, and there is no solution as of now, as the smart folks are hoping that the growth will return and all the bills will be paid. The only good story right now is US, where the ten year treasuries are about 1.75% - low but positive … there are some good stories in Asian countries, which have no/low deficit and reasonable rates, like India, but the asian countries are also dependent on US, as when US sneezes, rest of the world catches cold ..!

why everyone feels so good despite this situation? well, since the rates are low (or negative low), capital is freely available throughout the world .. in Netherland, banks are giving loans at negative rates to purchase a house, which can be returned for less .. since the capital is accessible at such a low rates and bonds are not providing much, the capital is directly going into stock market; hence the rise since 2012, but banks can’t make money with negative rates, and if the banks don’t make money - a major sector of current economy - it can take rest of the economy down in Europe.

& why the excess capital is NOT introducing inflation in the economy? 1. technological advancement & automation: even software can be produced as well as tested by machines

2. internet has provided price transparency; hence its hard to exploit customers; plus amazon is working hard to bring you low prices

3. cost of production is low as manufacturing is moved to Asian countries, which are still in growth mode

4. people spend lot of money on buying & replacing gadgets like iPhone, while there is [almost] no limit to the supply of the material

5. USD is still strengthening partly because world needs dollars to make a transaction, and the more world-wide economy grows, more dollars are needed; uplifting dollar artificially, despite our $20T debt. so US is good in that way, for now! BTW, the repo problem seen last week is a probable effect of this issue, as Feds started reducing the balance sheet, there is a reduced supply of dollars world-wide, which became a problem ..!

future: so how will this end ..? short answer: i don’t know and am afraid that anyone does, but here are a few possibilities of a trigger which may turn into a cascade: 1. US recession: which most folks are seeing based on yield curve inversion

2. US political party switch in 2020: from republicans to democrats, which could be a cause as well as effect; so beware

3. hard BREXIT causing recession in UK

4. recession in one of the EU countries including Germany (PMI under 50 today)  

5. failure at one of the European big banks or default by an EU country - candidates: Greece, Italy

ECB doesn’t have a fix (also change of guard from Draghi to Laggard) except keeping the rates low in comparison to US, but if US joins the club by lowering the rates in negative zone (FOMC started lowering in 2019), ECB & BOJ will find a dead-end soon ..!

as a famous economist said, in the end, we are all dead .. i am not a pessimist person, but the next decade won’t be anything compared to last three ..!

IF the above scenario is played, where would the stock market go in next decade …?

my take: just review the Japan stock market chart in last 30 years and make your judgement .. i have stated the numbers in the beginning ... Good luck ..!

now i have to tell you a joke:

of course, an economist’s joke; so you may not laugh in the end: if this scenario plays out, most of the folks and the media will blame the recession on trade war … yes, trade war is a cause, but its like a bucket in the ocean; given the US economy and interest rates, and everyone who is willing to work, has a job .. do you think people have stopped buying $1K iPhones; or you wouldn’t buy a shirt because it costs couple of dollars more .. blaming the next recession on trade war is a joke ..!

can you imagine that Trump filed for bankruptcy after 1989 real-estate crisis and now he is the President & a billionaire ..!

NeXt Decade.

Because he represents the Second Decade of Heisei Kamen Rider coming to a close as Decade did the first. I don’t mean to say he is the Next Kamen Rider Decade (though the similarities are hard to miss) but that he is the Rider who stands as the representative of everything that has come since Decade and also for the entire Heisei Era given that he will be the LAST Heisei Rider.

Young aunt Maeve on her first expedition to Shang Simla. A former adrenaline junkie. A current self-made woman - importer of the finest fabrics around the Sim world. Al Simharian linen, Shang Simla’s silk, velvet and lace made in Champ Les Sims - if you want to be a top fashion designer this is the woman you should call your “best friend”. The price (apart from thousands and thousands of simoleons)? The fragile mentality of your young daughter poisoned influenced by the countless stories for tomb riding, winemaking and martial arts fighting.

Introduction to Bitcoin and its Volatility

Bitcoin, the pioneer of cryptocurrencies, has taken the economy global utilizing hurricane considering its inception in 2009. As a decentralized virtual forex, Bitcoin offers a brand new manner of conducting monetary transactions without the want for intermediaries like banks. However, despite its growing reputation and extensive adoption, one element that has fascinated each fanatics and skeptics alike is the intense volatility of its charge.

The cost of Bitcoin has skilled extensive fluctuations in its records. Its charge can surge to record highs or plummet to new lows in only a few days. This volatility has left many buyers questioning the destiny of Bitcoin's rate. Will it continue to skyrocket, or is a crash inevitable? Examining the factors affecting Bitcoin's price is crucial to solving these questions.

Factors Influencing the Bitcoin Price

Several elements contribute to the volatility of Bitcoin's fee. One of the primary drivers is marketplace demand and supply. As more fantastic people and institutions adopt Bitcoin, its need increases, increasing the price. Conversely, if the call decreases, the cost can also enjoy a downward fashion. Additionally, the limited supply of Bitcoin performs an enormous role. With a capped collection of 21 million cash, the shortage is built into its design, which could result in price appreciation.

Another issue impacting Bitcoin's charge is regulatory developments. Government policies and policies can significantly affect the belief and acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Favorable rules, together with the recognition of Bitcoin as a criminal gentle, can enhance its cost. Alternatively, poor policies or bans can cause a decline in demand and subsequently affect the fee.

Technological improvements and innovations within the blockchain area also affect Bitcoin's fee. Improvements in scalability, protection, and adoption of recent features can increase the cryptocurrency's confidence, attracting more traders and driving the price upwards. Conversely, any vulnerabilities or setbacks in the generation may have a terrible impact on the charge.

Historical Bitcoin Price Trends

To better apprehend the capacity future of Bitcoin's charge, it's miles critical to investigate its historic fee developments. Looking lower back on the early days of Bitcoin, its cost changed insignificantly. However, as attention and adoption grew, the price started to bounce. In 2017, Bitcoin skilled an ancient bull run, reaching an all-time excessive near $20,000. This meteoric upward push was followed by a tremendous correction, with the price falling to around $three 000 in 2018.

Since then, Bitcoin has seen several cycles of highs and lows. Each process has been characterized via a length of consolidation and accumulation, observed through a surge in rate. These cycles can provide insights into the potential destiny of Bitcoin's charge as they exhibit marketplace individuals' habitual patterns and behaviors.

Expert Opinions on Bitcoin's Future

Predicting the future of Bitcoin's charge is a complex challenge, and specialists have various evaluations of its trajectory. Some agree that Bitcoin can reach new heights in the subsequent decade. They argue that increasing institutional adoption, worldwide financial uncertainty, and the restricted supply of cash will pressure the price. These proponents often point to the growing hobby from fundamental organizations and buyers as a sturdy indicator of Bitcoin's long-time value.

Alternatively, skeptics argue that Bitcoin is a speculative asset without an intrinsic cost. They agree that its price is commonly pushed via market sentiment and is at risk of massive bubbles and crashes. They caution against investing in Bitcoin, emphasizing the dangers and volatility related to the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Price Predictions for the Next Decade

While it is impossible to expect Bitcoin's fee with reality, many analysts and professionals have made predictions for the subsequent decade. These predictions range from conservative estimates to extremely bullish forecasts. Some experts believe that Bitcoin should reach six-figure prices, driven by multiplied adoption, shortage, and growing hobby from institutional investors. Others are more careful, predicting a slower upward trajectory with a focal point on balance and marketplace maturation.

It is crucial to word that these predictions are speculative and must be all for a grain of salt. The cryptocurrency market is notably unpredictable, and unexpected activities or market dynamics can significantly affect Bitcoin's price.

Potential Risks and Challenges for Bitcoin's Price

While the future of Bitcoin's fee holds promise, several dangers and challenges could affect its trajectory. One of the giant concerns is regulatory uncertainty. Nonetheless, governments around the sector are grappling with how to alter cryptocurrencies, which may lead to stricter rules or bans. Such traits may want to harm Bitcoin's price and adoption.

Another venture is the potential for technological vulnerabilities. While blockchain technology has been confirmed to be comfy, it isn't always immune to hacks or exploits. A foremost protection breach could shake investor self-assurance and reason an enormous drop in Bitcoin's rate.

Additionally, opposition from other cryptocurrencies poses a chance to Bitcoin's dominance. Newer and superior cryptocurrencies ought to emerge, offering progressed functions and scalability. If these cryptocurrencies benefit enormous adoption, it could affect Bitcoin's marketplace proportion and fee.

Factors that Could Drive Bitcoin's Price Up

Despite the risks and demanding situations, numerous elements may want to drive Bitcoin's rate up in the next decade. One of the most widespread drivers is improved institutional adoption. As more conventional financial institutions understand and invest in Bitcoin, it lends credibility and attracts extra traders. This inflow of institutional capital may want to push the rate upwards.

Another thing is the growing interest from retail investors. As consciousness and information about cryptocurrencies grow, more individuals consider Bitcoin a feasible investment alternative. The elevated demand from retail traders may want to make contributions to the price appreciation of Bitcoin.

Furthermore, macroeconomic factors, including worldwide financial uncertainty and inflation concerns, may also drive the rate of Bitcoin up. As a decentralized and non-inflationary asset, Bitcoin is frequently visible as a hedge in opposition to traditional fiat currencies and monetary instability. If global economic situations get worse, buyers can also flock to Bitcoin as a shop of value, probably riding up its rate.

Factors that Could Bring Bitcoin's Price Down

While some elements could force Bitcoin's price up, others would carry it down. One such thing is regulatory crackdowns. If governments impose strict policies or ban cryptocurrencies altogether, it may hose down investor sentiment and motive a decline in the call for Bitcoin.

Another element is marketplace manipulation. The cryptocurrency marketplace continues to be extraordinarily younger and unregulated compared to standard financial markets. This loss of oversight leaves it at risk of manipulation with the aid of prominent players, which include whales or market manipulators. Coordinated sell-offs or pump-and-dump schemes may want to inflate or deflate Bitcoin's charge artificially.

Technological risks and protection vulnerabilities or scalability troubles should also impact Bitcoin's rate. If a prime safety breach occurs or Bitcoin's era fails to meet the needs of a growing user base, it may erode investor self-assurance and cause a decline in charge.

Strategies for Investing in Bitcoin

Investing in Bitcoin calls for careful consideration and a strategic approach. Here are a few techniques to recollect:

Diversification: Instead of setting all your eggs in a single basket, consider diversifying your investment portfolio. Allocate a portion of your portfolio to Bitcoin while investing in other asset training to spread the threat.

Dollar-value averaging: Remember to invest a fixed quantity in Bitcoin at regular intervals rather than looking to time the market. This method reduces the impact of brief-time period rate fluctuations and permits you to build up Bitcoin over the years.

Staying knowledgeable: Keep abreast of the state-of-the-art tendencies in the cryptocurrency area. Stay knowledgeable approximately regulatory adjustments, technological improvements, and marketplace tendencies that would impact Bitcoin's price. This expertise will assist you in making knowledgeable funding decisions.

Conclusion: Navigating the Uncertain Future of Bitcoin's Price

In the end, the destiny of Bitcoin's rate stays uncertain. While some factors might drive its charge up, some dangers and challenges could deliver it down. It is essential for buyers to technique Bitcoin with caution and conduct thorough studies before making funding selections.

Bitcoin's adventure over the subsequent decade can be formed through many factors, including market demand, regulatory trends, technological improvements, and macroeconomic situations. By staying informed and adopting a strategic approach, traders can navigate the volatile landscape and capitalize on the opportunities supplied with the aid of Bitcoin.