#mental model

Mental Model: "Think in Probabilities, Not Certainties - Part 1"

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This isn’t just another ebook—it’s a powerful mental model designed to transform how you approach decision-making. Here’s how you’ll benefit:

Master Uncertainty: Learn how to make better decisions in unpredictable situations using probabilistic thinking.

Unlock Real-Life Applications: Discover the exact tools experts use to evaluate risk, handle randomness, and maximize opportunities.

The topic of mental models came up and I wasn't familiar with that specific terminology. Easy to assume what the meaning is, but I decided to look it up.

Mental Models

*mental models guide your perception and behavior. Thinking tools of a mental model include understanding life, making decisions, and solving problems.

*mental models are based on beliefs and a person's thought processes. This may involve incomplete facts, past experiences, or even intuitive perceptions.

*a mental model is a representation of some domain or situation that supports comprehension, prediction, and reasoning.

*a mental model in psychology is an internal representation of external reality, hypothesized to play a major role in cognition, reasoning, and decision-making. Mental models can help shape behavior and set an approach to solving problems and doing tasks. In psychology, the term " mental model" is sometimes used to refer to mental representations or mental simulation generally.

*a mental model is the specific thought process you use to examine a problem. There are many mental models and each one takes on a unique view of a foreign concept in order to reduce complexity. In short, it's the mind's way of making sense of something. It's a way of examining a problem.

*a mental model is a compression of how something works. Any idea, belief, or concept can be distilled down.

*mental models affect how we see problems and how we see people as well.

*a mental model is a model that is constructed and simulated within a conscious mind.

More thoughts later.

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Ever tried navigating a bustling city with a map from the 1980s? Turns out, the city is the same, but the map has changed.

John’s Coffee Shop, a bustling locale in New York, changed hands three times in a decade. On paper, every owner was a savvy entrepreneur. Yet, two of them failed, one succeeded wildly. The difference? Their perception of the territory.

Fact: Every business operates with models. Forecasts. Predictions. Templates. Maps. But, as Alfred Korzybski reminded us, "the map is not the territory."

John's first owner, a techie, automated everything. He trusted algorithms to dictate coffee preferences, manage inventory, and even select music. His map: technology-driven efficiency equals success.

The second owner went retro. Vintage furniture. Manual registers. A return to the "good old days." His map: people long for nostalgia.

The third, a young barista-turned-owner, constantly interacted with customers. She tweaked the menu based on conversations, adjusted seating arrangements from observations, and kept a flexible approach. Her map: listen, adapt, and evolve.

Two static maps. One dynamic terrain. Guess who thrived?

Our businesses, like cities, are dynamic, ever-changing. But we, time and again, clutch outdated maps thinking they'll guide us.

Tesla didn’t dominate by following the traditional auto industry's map. They redrew it.

Netflix didn’t rise by mimicking Blockbuster. They envisioned a new landscape.

Yet, countless businesses cling to their maps. After all, it's reassuring to follow a blueprint. But what if that blueprint is outdated or just plain wrong?

Consider the Titanic. Best nautical map of its time. Top-notch navigation tools. But, it wasn’t the map that failed; it was the iceberg not on it. A dynamic, unforeseen component of the territory.

So, how do we operate in a world where our business maps might be leading us astray?

Embrace Uncertainty: Every map has blind spots. Anticipate them.

Stay Curious: The world changes. Regularly revisit and revise your maps.

Interact with the Terrain: Get out there. Feel the ground. Talk to people. Real-time feedback trumps theoretical models.

Remember Blockbuster’s decline? They had a map. A good one. But when the terrain changed with the rise of digital streaming, their map became obsolete.

Conversely, Apple, under Jobs, was known to pivot on a dime. iPod's success? iPhone’s creation? Responses to a changing territory.

Lastly, a nod to Nassim Taleb, the author who’s talked extensively about "Black Swan" events. Events so rare, so unpredictable, they’re not on anyone’s map. Yet, they shape terrains. Businesses that thrive, Taleb argues, aren’t those with the best maps, but those most adaptable when off the map.

So, as you chart your business journey, remember:

Your map is a guide, not gospel. The real magic happens when you dare to traverse the unmapped, the unpredictable, the unknown.

Even when your owner is Alphabet, you have limited resources of time, money, and attention. What that means is Teller has to identify the projects that aren’t going to pan out as quickly as possible. To pursue radical ideas, he has to be a radical loss-cutter. Every dollar they save by getting to no quickly is a dollar they can spend on something that could change the world.

Kill criteria could consist of information you learn that tells you the monkey isn’t trainable or that you’re not sufficiently likely to reach your goal, or signs that luck has gone against you.

The best quitting criteria combine two things: a state and a date. A state is just what it sounds like, an objective, measurable condition you or your project is in, a benchmark that you have hit or missed. A date is the when.

Taken together, the monkeys-and-pedestals mental model and kill criteria help us overcome our aversion to closing accounts in the losses. First, they both get you to no faster, which naturally limits the losses that you have to absorb when you quit. And the less you are down, the easier it is to walk away.