#long duration

‘Say Ahhh’ is an up-close, 28-minute performance for video. Wooden depressor pushed to tongue, pin light searching the frame of the wide-open mouth, I allow the camera to expose the cavity of palate and throat and tonsils in a messy test of self-diagnosis, revealing the site of anxiety, the cause of this extended isolation.

Drawing on a long practice of durational performance, ‘Say Ahhh’ pushes up to the limits of the body—jaw tightening, breathing labored, throat filling and becoming quickly red and raw—as the visual becomes increasing abstracted, and the sound aligns with a chant or drone. I encourage all types of engagement: perhaps coming and going along the timeline, similar to how the public encounters the performances I usually make over 8 or 10 or 15 hours, or staying with it: a surrender to subtle shifts in a tight frame and a reassessment of proximity and sensuality, scale and scope.

In reconsidering the intersection between the live and the mediated, performance and its document, I use this work to till the lineage of Peggy Phelan’s purist ontology of performance toward Philip Auslander’s redefinition of liveness, and further reference Laura Mark’s collapsing of the visual and the haptic. As a visual performer, I have particular spatial, durational and embodied experience, but I have been video-resistant in my own practice, so in this suspended Covid time I began looking back in order to move forward, and this piece certainly pays tribute to both Annie Sprinkle’s 1990 live performance ‘Public Cervix Announcement’ as well as VALIE EXPORT’s 2007 video work in which her vocal cords were recorded with a medical camera, ‘the voice as performance, act and body.’

I am thankful for this opportunity with the Performance Research Network at Newcastle University to uncover new possibilities in my practice, and from within my lineage, as I explore what liveness means now.

In the previous memo I wrote that: "The elephant in the room remains oil as it has a support from the OPEC supply reduction. Softness in oil would be a flag for growth (and in favour of a long duration reversal), whereas strength would be fuelling the narrative of higher rates. In the growth scenarios, a weaker USD would prompt the oil prices. Hence oil and long duration bonds can only be inversely correlated and something will have to give eventually. Due to the odds the portfolio of long oil and long bonds seems like the most robust way to keep navigating these markets, and any USD weakness would offer support to a narrative of equities breaking further out. In any case either oil or long duration yields will have to give in (like oil concerns are growth concerns and can't support the narrative of higher long term rates, whereas higher oil prices can be consistent with further downward momentum). Given this macro duality and the OPEC control of supply I remain bullish in oil (and view the current dip as weather than macro driven), and will also start dipping into long durations via sale of puts (which I am converting in oil calls)."

The recent tragic events are unfortunately reinforcing this view providing supportive evidence of the robustness of the thesis. Currently I see the following 5 states of the world:

(the good scenario, with risk back on, growth steady and inflation tamed) The current correction is just a pull back in the bull market that started in October 22´ and the ability of the market to response with moderation to the elevated uncertainty supports this thesis. Risk back on would suggest that equities, long durations, euro, oil all buckle up, in the anticipation of strong economic growth without inflation. The current market weakness despite the softening of bonds and USD at the end of the week do not support this thesis.

(the ugly one, a wide geopolitical contagion) there will be a moment of panic or reckoning and it will most likely be triggered by oil. In this scenario duration can only act as a safe haven (as per the March experience with the US bank drama and UK guilt crisis) and bonds, oil, USD will rise. So, either credit spreads should follow and break the current view which corresponds to an optimistic market, or there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy yet and markets will shake out the elevated volatility. It is worth nothing that this one of the longest periods where the spread between high yield and treasuries is so stable - actually the two are moving in lockstep for one of their longest periods. Worth selling the volatility int he long duration and buying the one inc credit.

(the aftermath of the new world order) persistently higher oil prices will keep pushing up inflation - but the impact on growth (as already witnessed in chemicals and other industrial companies) will keep any further decline in long duration moderate. So inflation pressures will be balanced out by growth concerns. Bonds to remain flat and oil to test the previous ATHs.

(the slowdown) growth concerns will drive lower prices for oil, but stabilise the long duration. The spread versus high yield will open due to the default risk.

2,3 and 4 are interrelated and 3 and 4 can happen without 2.

In all the above states of the world we have a limited likelihood of a continued price action of the long duration, and as confirmed by Bill Ackman there is too much risk in the world to keep shorting bonds. The elevated volatility in an asset historically stable is an opportunity to sell the downside and exchange for volatility in the EURUSD - which offers a wide exposure to a range of scenarios and an elevated likelihood that a 5% move in a month is on the cards. Long positions in bonds or short puts can be hedged by short, asymmetric positions in high yield credit, especially as the spread between long duration and high yield is at an all time low. Oil remains the fundamental thesis here and the main price action to follow. Long oil, short puts on long duration, long EURUSD volatility, are the three poles of navigating this mist and most importantly all the "laws of physics volatility" we experience around us which is yet not priced in the markets.

The high yield thesis, Franklin Templeton, June 2023, but the likelihood is against it.

Longest period of calm for high yield spreads in some time.

Life in an oil regime, and the parting volatility between the EUR and the 10year.

Two bear cases for equities and two bull ones:

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