Having read your dabi theory, which is very good, I’d find it weird that after the “How sad” todoroki wouldn’t immediately recognize his brother’s voice and face and tell everyone that his brother is in the league of villains. Like, I’m certain he would recognize him. But todoroki so far hasn’t acknowledged it
Thanks for taking the time to read it! Yes, that’s a counter-argument people often make… so let me try to address it publicly this time. Again, I’m heavily biased so this may or may not sound plausible to you.
My explanation is, it was late at night, and at the critical moment when Shouto should’ve been close enough to identify Dabi, Dabi’s face was obscured in the shadows. It doesn’t look like it because of Kurogiri’s warp gate, but he was backlit:
However, even before that I think you are right in that Shouto should’ve recognized Dabi. In fact, I actually believe Shouto had a feeling he knew Dabi. He just wasn’t sure. The situation they were in didn’t exactly allow him to dwell on a vague hunch, either. We can see this in the manga, where there were 2 occasions when something seemed off.
1) When Shouto first saw Dabi:
I talked about it a little bit here, but basically the way they looked at each other here (and the anime) seemed kinda odd. Shouto looks surprised with the open mouth, then Dabi’s panel comes right after and he’s smiling as if he had been expecting them. Combined with Twice’s contradictory remark, it’s almost as if their thoughts were being narrated - in Dabi’s case, he definitely knew Shouto while in Shouto’s case, he wasn’t certain. However, Shouto could not mull over it because they were urgently trying to get Bakugou back. (Yes I know Twice always contradicts himself but that’s beside the point.) Overall, this scene gave off a subtle vibe of recognition between the two.
2) When Dabi used his quirk:
Shouto seemed to be caught up in watching the fire, before Twice brought him back to reality. Then he quickly turned around to deal with Twice. Again, this shows that Dabi’s quirk caught his attention, but they were not in a situation for him to think any further.
The reason Shouto wouldn’t be sure of Dabi’s identity is obvious - if someone I knew got their face screwed up like that and dyed their hair, I don’t think I’d recognize them either. It follows then, that Dabi shouldn’t have had those scars before he left home / became a villain.
As for the voice, we have no idea when Dabi left home. If he ran away when he was young, his voice would’ve changed. Shouto was also isolated from his siblings and perhaps he doesn’t know too well the details of his siblings’ quirks. He himself rejected his fire quirk for a long time, so he may not even know that he can use blue fire. That could be why Dabi’s quirk didn’t immediately set off brother alarms in his brain.
Keep in mind that Shouto’s also a very private person, so even if he recalls the incident afterward, he wouldn’t be sharing it with his classmates. Certainly not if he wasn’t even sure about his hunch in the first place. I think it’s more likely for him to forget about it or refrain from bringing it up until he encounters Dabi again. Hence, we as the audience also wouldn’t be told about it until then.