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Shinzo Abe has gone from invincible to vulnerable in a mere six weeks. Earlier this year the Japanese Prime Minister enjoyed an approval rating of 66% in a Yomiuri poll and faced no credible challenges from the opposition or within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Now a scandal involving his ties to Japanâs ultranationalist fringe has hurt Mr. Abeâs popularity and unsettled markets.
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Yasunori Kagoike is a member of the Japan Conference, a nationalist group to which Mr. Abe and more than half of his cabinet belong. Mr. Kagoike is also the head of an Osaka kindergarten that teaches its pupils absolute loyalty to the state. In 2015 Mr. Abeâs wife gave a speech at the school in which she praised its curriculum. According to Mr. Kagoikeâs testimony to Parliament, she gave $9,000 on the Prime Ministerâs behalf. Mr. and Mrs. Abe deny making the donation.
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Mr. Kagoike lobbied LDP lawmakers for help buying land to build a primary school named after the Prime Minister.
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The scandal started in February when it emerged that the school received an 85% discount on a plot purchased from Japanâs Transport Ministry.
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Mr. Abe denies any involvement in the land transaction and has offered to resign if implicated. But the scandal has also dragged in hardline Defense Minister Tomomi Inada, another Japan Conference member. After telling Parliament that she never represented Mr. Kagoikeâs school as a lawyer, evidence that she had done so forced her to recant.
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The Japanese public was alarmed to learn that Mr. Kagoikeâs kindergarten makes children chant the 1890 Imperial Rescript on Education, a pledge of obedience to the emperor that was a key part of pre-World War II militarism. He was also forced to apologize for derogatory comments about Koreans and Chinese.
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While Mr. Abe is unlikely to lose his job as a result of the scandal, it hurts his ability to set the political agenda. The Prime Minister has delayed badly needed economic reforms such as deregulation and laws to give companies greater ability to hire and fire full-time employees. Now itâs doubtful he could pass them through Parliament if he wanted to.
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The Abenomics program so far consists mostly of monetary stimulus, which boosted asset prices but failed to conquer deflation. Mr. Abe used his electoral mandates from the 2012 and 2014 elections to concentrate on security issues, such as a reinterpretion of Japanâs constitution to allow the military to fight alongside U.S. forces. Those changes were worthwhile, but prioritizing them over the economy was a mistake. The Japanese public is increasingly skeptical of Abenomics, but Mr. Abe remained popular because no credible alternative leader was available.
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That may be changing.Yuriko Koike, who served Mr. Abe as Defense Minister in 2007, looks set to consolidate her power as Tokyoâs Governor in Julyâs Metropolitan Assembly election. Japanese commentators speculate that she plans to seek the leadership of the LDP.
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Such a challenge could benefit Mr. Abe if he now distances himself from the Japan Conference and concentrates on fixing the economy. But the scandal is also a reminder that political power is fleeting and shouldnât be squandered.
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