The Future of Mexican Pines
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Mexico is one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots for pine species, with over sixty taxa found mostly in temperate mountainous regions. This remarkable richness has led researchers to investigate how these species will respond to ongoing climate change. Their focus was on the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), the country's largest pine forest reserve and one of the most threatened ecoregions in North America, due to both deforestation and climate pressure.
The SMO is home to more than twenty pine species, and future distribution models were developed for nineteen of them. These species distribution models (SDMs) combine occurrence records with environmental variables to project where species could thrive in the future. A total of 32 environmental variables were used, and the SSP245 scenario was applied—this represents a pathway of moderate climate change, with growing economic development but limited climate action, predicting a temperature increase of 2.0–2.9°C over the next century.
The analysis not only forecasted the fate of each species but also identified areas of high species richness, helpful for planning new protected zones. Only three species – Pinus cembroides, P. chihuahuana, and P. engelmannii – are expected to maintain a broad potential distribution, while P. brachyptera and P. yecorensis could suffer the most severe contractions.
Eighteen of the nineteen species are projected to lose range. The most alarming case is P. brachyptera, which may lose 97% of its suitable habitat by 2040 and disappear by 2060. Others may decline by 2080 and slightly recover by 2100, or shift to higher altitudes; however, the rapid pace of warming raises concerns about their ability to adapt.
These results are worrying, especially considering that only a small portion of the most biodiverse areas are currently under protection. Timely conservation efforts, involving local communities, are crucial to safeguard this irreplaceable ecological and economic heritage.
See You Soon and Good Science!
Source Pic by Bergadder (Pixabay)
