#foreckinfo

Financial markets ended the week cautiously as investors assessed reports of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Market highlights:

• The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and pound but strengthened versus the yen. • The European Central Bank indicated that its recent rate increase may be sufficient for now, depending on inflation trends. • The Bank of England is expected to maintain current policy settings amid stable economic data. • Markets are closely watching the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, where a rate hike remains possible. • Australia’s slowing growth and rising unemployment are supporting expectations of a pause in monetary tightening.

Meanwhile, oil prices drifted lower toward $86 per barrel as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough reduced concerns about prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Ethereum is demonstrating strong market resilience after reclaiming and holding above the key 2,000$ level.

Currently trading near 2,300$, ETH has established a constructive technical structure supported by rising open interest and increasing funding rates. Importantly, both spot and derivatives volumes are growing in parallel, indicating a balanced and healthy market environment rather than an overheated rally.

On-chain and order book data highlight the significance of the 2,000$ level. This zone is not only a psychological support but also an area of concentrated liquidity and strong limit buy interest. In the event of a pullback, it is likely to act as a key stabilization point.

At the same time, the presence of liquidity clusters below current levels suggests that short-term corrections cannot be ruled out, especially as the market seeks to rebalance positions.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has warned that a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence sector could become a meaningful risk factor for Bitcoin in 2026. He noted that Bitcoin remains closely tied to global capital allocation trends, and a reallocation toward AI mega-cap investments could impact BTC demand.

At the same time, Ardoino argued that deeper institutional participation reduces the likelihood of extreme drawdowns seen in previous crypto cycles. He also highlighted tokenization of real-world assets as a long-term structural positive for blockchain adoption.

Major currency pairs are consolidating ahead of a heavy macro calendar dominated by the delayed U.S. labor market report for November. EUR/USD is holding near 1.1730, while GBP/USD remains under pressure ahead of UK employment data and the Bank of England’s policy meeting.

The Japanese yen continues to strengthen as markets assess the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike later this month. In contrast, gold is extending its bullish momentum, testing the 4,340 level amid global monetary easing and strong central bank purchases.

The U.S. dollar is strengthening against the euro and pound ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting, while oil prices are falling sharply on expectations of a potential U.S.–Iran peace agreement.

Key developments:

▪️ The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75% ▪️ Markets are focused on comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ▪️ Lower oil prices could reduce inflation pressure globally ▪️ The dollar is benefiting from cautious market sentiment

🌍 Regional overview:

🇪🇺 Eurozone Economic sentiment improved significantly, but weak industrial production and trade figures continue to limit euro gains.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom GDP contracted by 0.1%, increasing concerns about economic growth and weighing on the pound.

🇯🇵 Japan The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.00%, supporting the yen despite ongoing economic uncertainty.

🛢️ Oil Market Brent crude has fallen back toward the $78–81 range as the geopolitical premium built during the Middle East conflict continues to unwind.

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $65,686 after falling to a multi-month low of $59,100.

According to Glassnode:

▪️ More than 95% of recent buyers are currently at a loss ▪️ Demand remains below levels typically seen at major market bottoms ▪️ Corporate Bitcoin purchases have slowed noticeably

Additional support came from Japan’s latest crypto legislation, which could eventually allow cryptocurrency ETFs and reduce crypto capital gains taxes from 55% to 20%.

📊 Technical levels:

Resistance: 🔹 $67,000 🔹 $74,700

Support: 🔸 $63,200 🔸 $56,000

Trading scenarios:

📉 Bearish: Break below $63,200 → target $56,000

📈 Bullish: Break above $67,000 → target $74,700

Leading cryptocurrencies managed to recover part of their recent losses this week.

Current prices:

▪️ BTC — $63,605 (+0.11%) ▪️ ETH — $1,675 (–3.78%) ▪️ BNB — $603 (+0.41%) ▪️ XRP — $1.14 (–0.03%)

The market remains under pressure from inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and capital flowing into major AI and technology companies.

At the same time, regulation has become the key topic for investors:

🔹 More than 200 crypto organizations support the U.S. CLARITY Act. 🔹 Coinbase, Kraken, Circle, Ripple, a16z, Uniswap, Aave, Solana Policy Institute and many others are calling for clearer rules. 🔹 New York regulators are proposing stronger stablecoin reserve and audit requirements. 🔹 The UK FCA is preparing rules that could allow retail funds to invest in crypto ETNs. 🔹 European authorities continue building frameworks for stablecoins, custody, and staking.

Despite the slight recovery, market sentiment remains extremely weak.

📉 Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant believes Bitcoin could be approaching an important valuation floor based on its Realized Price, currently estimated at $53,600.

Key points:

▪️ BTC recently dropped to about $59,000 before recovering above $62,000 ▪️ Bitcoin demand fell by approximately 652,000 BTC last week ▪️ ETF outflows and weak spot demand remain major headwinds ▪️ Realized losses are still far below previous bear-market capitulation levels

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin often forms cycle bottoms near its Realized Price. However, analysts stress that current market conditions remain fragile and that a sustainable bullish reversal will require stronger demand and renewed institutional participation.