#foreckinfo

The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure even as hopes grow for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran.

According to reports, both countries have signed a memorandum of intent to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The official talks are expected to continue in Switzerland on Friday.

Despite the positive geopolitical news, crypto assets continue to decline:

🔹 Bitcoin — $63,900 (-2.85%) 🔹 Ethereum — $1,726 (-3.58%) 🔹 Solana — $70.68 (-3.54%) 🔹 XRP — $1.16 (-4.15%)

Institutional demand remains weak:

▪️ Bitcoin ETFs recorded $82.16 million in outflows ▪️ Ethereum ETFs lost $29.37 million

The recent Federal Reserve meeting also contributed to negative sentiment, with investors remaining cautious toward risk assets.

The U.S. dollar is strengthening against the euro and pound ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting, while oil prices are falling sharply on expectations of a potential U.S.–Iran peace agreement.

Key developments:

▪️ The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75% ▪️ Markets are focused on comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ▪️ Lower oil prices could reduce inflation pressure globally ▪️ The dollar is benefiting from cautious market sentiment

🌍 Regional overview:

🇪🇺 Eurozone Economic sentiment improved significantly, but weak industrial production and trade figures continue to limit euro gains.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom GDP contracted by 0.1%, increasing concerns about economic growth and weighing on the pound.

🇯🇵 Japan The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.00%, supporting the yen despite ongoing economic uncertainty.

🛢️ Oil Market Brent crude has fallen back toward the $78–81 range as the geopolitical premium built during the Middle East conflict continues to unwind.

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $65,686 after falling to a multi-month low of $59,100.

According to Glassnode:

▪️ More than 95% of recent buyers are currently at a loss ▪️ Demand remains below levels typically seen at major market bottoms ▪️ Corporate Bitcoin purchases have slowed noticeably

Additional support came from Japan’s latest crypto legislation, which could eventually allow cryptocurrency ETFs and reduce crypto capital gains taxes from 55% to 20%.

📊 Technical levels:

Resistance: 🔹 $67,000 🔹 $74,700

Support: 🔸 $63,200 🔸 $56,000

Trading scenarios:

📉 Bearish: Break below $63,200 → target $56,000

📈 Bullish: Break above $67,000 → target $74,700

Leading cryptocurrencies managed to recover part of their recent losses this week.

Current prices:

▪️ BTC — $63,605 (+0.11%) ▪️ ETH — $1,675 (–3.78%) ▪️ BNB — $603 (+0.41%) ▪️ XRP — $1.14 (–0.03%)

The market remains under pressure from inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and capital flowing into major AI and technology companies.

At the same time, regulation has become the key topic for investors:

🔹 More than 200 crypto organizations support the U.S. CLARITY Act. 🔹 Coinbase, Kraken, Circle, Ripple, a16z, Uniswap, Aave, Solana Policy Institute and many others are calling for clearer rules. 🔹 New York regulators are proposing stronger stablecoin reserve and audit requirements. 🔹 The UK FCA is preparing rules that could allow retail funds to invest in crypto ETNs. 🔹 European authorities continue building frameworks for stablecoins, custody, and staking.

Despite the slight recovery, market sentiment remains extremely weak.

📉 Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant believes Bitcoin could be approaching an important valuation floor based on its Realized Price, currently estimated at $53,600.

Key points:

▪️ BTC recently dropped to about $59,000 before recovering above $62,000 ▪️ Bitcoin demand fell by approximately 652,000 BTC last week ▪️ ETF outflows and weak spot demand remain major headwinds ▪️ Realized losses are still far below previous bear-market capitulation levels

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin often forms cycle bottoms near its Realized Price. However, analysts stress that current market conditions remain fragile and that a sustainable bullish reversal will require stronger demand and renewed institutional participation.

Algorand has emerged as one of the top-performing cryptocurrencies following a Google Quantum AI report highlighting quantum-resistant blockchain solutions.

The token gained around 18%, supported by strong technical momentum and renewed investor interest. However, technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, raising the possibility of short-term consolidation.

Crypto markets weakened this week as geopolitical tensions intensified and ETF flows turned mixed.

Bitcoin is trading near $67,000, while total market capitalization declined to $2.31 trillion. Investor sentiment remains cautious, with the Fear & Greed Index falling to the extreme fear zone.

In addition to macroeconomic risks, the sector also faced a $285 million hack targeting Drift Protocol. Meanwhile, institutional developments continue, including Coinbase receiving conditional approval for a national trust bank charter.

Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of relative strength against gold as the store-of-value market evolves.

While gold significantly outperformed Bitcoin over the past year, Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market has declined to around 3.8%, suggesting potential catch-up opportunities.

In addition, the emergence of Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions is expanding the asset’s functionality beyond a traditional store of value. This development could strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term positioning as both a financial infrastructure layer and a global reserve asset.