#food source

The app is foodtwin.the plotline.org. I haven't figured out how to use it. The link takes you to a map and from there, you do your searching and research. I played with the State of Illinois and the province of Queensland (Australia) to learn about exports from those areas, and then decided I needed to be more disciplined to learn anything useful.

Excerpt from this story from Grist:

After founding the Better Planet Laboratory at the University of Colorado Boulder in 2021, Zia Mehrabi, one of a handful of scientists studying the intersection of food insecurity and climate change, soon found himself fielding a steady stream of calls from policymakers and peers. Everyone wanted more quantitative insight into how extreme weather events affect food supply chains and contribute to hunger around the world. But Mehrabi found the economic puzzle difficult to solve due to the limited public information available. What he could readily find mostly analyzed each disruption in isolation, focusing on one specific part of the world. It failed to account for the expansive flow of goods in global markets or the compounding effects of climate change on the supply chain — and it had to be laboriously mined from reports and one-off case studies. 

So when the nonprofit Earth Genome, which builds data-driven tools and resources for a more sustainable planet, approached Mehrabi to collaborate on developing his vision for a digital food supply map, he leapt at the chance. When their U.S. prototype proved successful, they went global.

The resulting app, which launched Thursday and was shared exclusively with Grist, identifies food flows through just about every major port, road, rail, and shipping lane across the world and traces goods to where they are ultimately consumed. The developers have crowned it a “digital twin of the global food system” and hope it will be used by policymakers and researchers working to better adapt to an increasingly fragile supply chain beleaguered by climate change. The model pinpoints critical global transportation chokepoints where disruptions, such as extreme weather, would have domino effects on food security and, in doing so, identifies opportunities for local and regional agricultural producers to gain a forward-thinking market foothold.

It’s not easy to swim 175 km (109 mi.) when you’re starving to death. It’s not easy either to try to survive when you’re shedding body weight at a rate of 1 kg (2.2 lbs.) a day.

And it might be hardest — or at least most tragic — of all if you’re a nursing mom and your calorie intake has dropped so low that you can no longer produce the milk you need to care for your young.

As a new paper in Nature Communications reveals, all of those challenges and more are facing the world’s polar bears, thanks to vanishing sea ice in our warming world, denying the animals a platform that they need to hunt for seals.

If the trend isn’t reversed soon, the estimated 26,000 polar bears in the wild could start to lose their hold on survival before the middle of this century.

The researchers were less interested in establishing the fact of the bears’ food plight; scientists are already aware of that problem.

What they were more focused on learning was both how gravely the nutritional loss is affecting the animals’ health and the alternative food sources they’re scrounging for on land.

To do their work, the scientists followed 20 different polar bears in Manitoba, Canada, from 2019 to 2022, fitting them with GPS trackers and video collars and periodically tranquilizing them and analyzing their blood, body mass, daily energy expenditure — basically a measure of calories coming in versus calories going out — and more.

“The polar bears in Hudson Bay [Canada] are probably at the edge of the range at which they can survive right now,” says Anthony Pagano, a research biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and the lead author of the paper.

“Most of the modeling work suggests that around 2050, they are going to be on land and away from their primary habitat [on the ice].”

The contraction in range of the Hudson Bay community is likely to be reflected in the ranges of the 18 other polar bear subpopulations scattered throughout the Arctic as well.

Across the arc of the study, the data Pagano and his colleagues gathered was troubling.

Weight loss varied from bear to bear, with the daily loss of 1 kg representing just an average.

Some of the subject animals dropped up to 1.7 kg (3.75 lbs) every 24 hours.

That may not seem like much when an adult male polar bear can tip the scales at 550 kg (1,200 lbs) and a female at 320 kg (700 lbs), but it can add up fast.

And with less available to eat, the hungry bears have to travel farther and farther distances to find their next meal.

The individual that swam 175 km — a young female — set the record among the bears studied, but another, older female also covered 120 km (75 mi).

The endurance swims in search of food are energy-intensive and often fruitless for the bears.

They are efficient hunters when they’ve got the purchase of ice beneath them, Pagano and his colleagues explain, but they are clumsy when they are going after seals and trying to swim at the same time.

That leaves them scavenging on land for foods they would not ordinarily eat — and getting little payoff for their efforts.

“Polar bears are feeding on ducks and geese — catching them when they’re flightless and molting — as well as on their eggs,” Pagano says.

Other foods on the desperate bears’ menus included berries and other vegetation, bones, antlers and, in one case, a beluga whale carcass.

None of that fare is as calorie-rich as a steady diet of live, blubber-packed seals.

Some of the bears vigorously sought out these alternative sources of nutrition; others opted for a different strategy: resting and conserving the energy contained in their body mass.

The latter approach costs stored calories, but so does the former, as all of the plodding and searching burns through energy too.

“The amount of body tissue they were burning to try and find those terrestrial foods was basically the same as what they’d get from eating those terrestrial foods,” Pagano says. “So there’s no actual benefit.”

The researchers were surprised to find that the bears were going through not just fat stores to compensate for the poor rations but lean muscle tissue too.

Pagano is not certain why their metabolisms would adopt that strategy, but he has some ideas.

“There's some thought that burning lean body mass might be more energetically efficient in some respects relative to burning body fats,” he says.

“Also, conserving their body fat might provide them better thermal regulation once the winter and the ice return.”

That seasonal freeze-over is shorter than it used to be — though not by a lot.

In the 1980s, polar bears were on land for about 110 days out of the year, with no need to eat terrestrial foods since the fat deposits they’d accumulate thanks to wintertime seal-hunting was enough to carry them the rest of the year.

Now they're off the ice for 130 days on average.

It’s a measure of the nutritional knife’s-edge on which the bears operate that just 20 days can make the difference between whether they live and thrive or starve and die.

The individuals most likely to perish when food supplies are poor are young adults — due to their less-developed hunting skills — and cubs, whose principal source of nutrition, their mother’s milk, can vanish in lean times.

“If females are fasting for extended periods, they will actually stop lactating,” says Pagano.

Full-grown bears are by no means immune to danger, however.

The authors cite earlier research predicting that the adult male population could decrease by 24% if the ice-free summer season increases to 180 days.

This is especially so given the enormous energy intake — about 22,500 calories per day — that the big males need to maintain their body weight.

Polar bears aren’t the only species menaced by these findings. Humans are in harm’s way too.

The more time bears spend off the ice and on land, the greater the likelihood they will wander into cities and towns in search of something to eat — and residents could easily be hurt or attacked if they get in the way of the hungry animals.

People might also even be seen as sources of prey.

“When polar bears are on land, they act like other bears and become omnivores,” says Pagano. “It does raise the potential for human-bear interactions.”

Hey anon, sure thing!

First thing, have a brainstorming page where you you can drop in all your ideas. Some of them will be gold and some of them will be incompatible so it helps if you can see what's going on. Depending on how you think, you can use something like a word or google doc, or you can use something that's more like a virtual corkboard so you can see everything at once.

(if you go with the second, I recommend a free platform Milanote, which you can sign up for here: https://www.milanote.com/refer/rcD4BodhMdhUngyUDX - note that this is a referral link but you can also sign up by just searching up milanote and signing up on your own)

Second thing, consider the following needs of a story setting:

Where do characters get food - is it grown or imported, and if imported, what do they use to pay for it, and where is it imported from. If it's grown, what kind of food do they produce, and what does it say about the type of terrain that's there?

What kind of shelter is there - what materials are structures made of? Are these local or exported, and what does that say about the location? How does shelter change between different economic classes? What is the architecture like - how does it play to the strengths of the materials they have and the climate?

Where do they get water from - is it readily accessible, or is it something that takes effort to get? What's the quality? If it's atrocious or hard to get, are there other popular means of hydration? How does economics play into this?

What kind of transportation is there - is it mostly public or private transportation, if it's private, how and where do people maintain their vehicles (assuming they're not walking). How feasible is it to travel abroad? How does social status play into all of this?

What are the needs of the location in terms of plot - if there are certain plotpoints that have specific sub-locations, how are those locations integrated into the wider setting from the get-go? If there's some kind of custom the people have, what about the setting/the setting's history will have caused that custom?

For each of these points, make sure you have at least a couple bullet points (except for possibly the plot question if you don't have a plot yet). This will create a starting ground that you can build up from.

The third thing is optional, but it's to create a map. This will help with consistency down the line so that you're not saying the same thing is in two seperate places, or that two seperate things were accidentally in the same place. I recommend using some kind of graph or hex paper so that you can scale it. If where things are is important to the story, I strongly recommend doing a map, but if it's not really, then don't worry about it unless it's something you're really interested in doing.