#ennovance

𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 = 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐯𝐬. 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦.

IP grinding at 4.5% YoY, but the demand side is unraveling: FAI -10.7%, infra -10.8%, property investment -24.9%, real retail <0%. The construction spine is still broken, new starts & sales in deep contraction, and excavator utilization hours sliding despite headline +30% YoY domestic sales (base effects). Exports tell the truth: -34% YoY.

China keeps “building” but not absorbing, the 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦‑𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑢𝑚 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑠. The gap between production (~5% YoY) and domestic demand (flat-to-negative) is now structural, and policy remains muted.

Dumping into the EU and routing goods into the U.S. via “mule” countries remains increasingly tricky as scrutiny tightens and trade partners push back on surplus absorption.

Interesting take by FT

𝐀𝐈 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐱 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐄𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡‑𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐄𝐫𝐚

⬇️

AI = regime shift in capital formation.

Hyperscaler capex ramps 6× → $815B (’23–’27), driving –70% FCF from prior $233B print‑rate.

Big Tech’s $800B buyback engine stalls → re‑equitisation replaces 20yrs of de‑equitisation.

SpaceX burn $9B/Q1; IPO wave (GOOG $85B raise + Meta/OpenAI/Anthropic) → $400–500B gross issuance.

AI/tech/data infra spend = $2T+, ~7% GDP, matching ’07 housing > ’99 tech.

IPO waves historically → sub‑avg forward returns, ↑vol, valuation compression risk.

US capex boom widens CA deficit; global savings pulled into USD assets → marginal ↑rates, crowd‑out risk for energy/defense capex.

Street models hyperscaler FCF inflecting ’27 → parabolic, requires heroic ROIC in a rising‑capex, falling‑moat environment.

Late‑cycle confidence + Giffen‑good equity dynamics = classic boom‑to‑bust setup.

Old regime (cash‑machine tech) → new regime (capital‑hungry AI).

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2065923394751570050?s=46

𝐈𝐏𝐎 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐚 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞

US IPO supply is ripping in real terms—2026 pacing a top‑2 year,yet issuance as % of S&P 500 cap (~0.6–0.7%) is still far below the early‑90s peak (~2% in 1993).

Dot‑com “peak” disappears because the denominator 3×‑expanded by ’99 and primary capital was small‑ticket, with mania concentrated in secondary‑market convexity.

🤔 2026 = late‑cycle liquidity‑event purge, not a return to the early‑90s public‑markets-as-growth‑capital regime.

#venturecapital #Fund #Investor

@ennovance

The “restaurant inflation supercycle” is officially yesterday’s entrée. FAFH and limited service have cooled to ~3–4%, two‑year comps cut in half, and the FAH–FAFH spread still favors eating at home. CPI–PPI spread rolling over. And tax‑refund season is telling: lower‑income households are the only cohort boosting restaurant spend post‑refunds, while higher‑income households are pulling back. Margins now depend on execution, not inflation.

𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐙𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐞‑𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐩𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐙𝐈𝐑𝐏‑𝐄𝐫𝐚 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐕𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐛

Zombie‑fund risk is going parabolic: Coller shows >50% of LPs now expect zombie funds to multiply in the next 24 months, vs 28% in 2024. Higher rates froze exits, deal count is down in 1H26, and ZIRP‑era assets are stuck. LPs overwhelmingly want fee cuts and economic resets over confrontation, while 2/5 expect more continuation vehicles even if exits rebound. Bain: “a growing number of companies are trapped in portfolios.” The extend‑and‑pretend cycle is becoming the asset class.

ht:BBG

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2065957213533876630?s=46 is

𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞‑𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐥: 𝐒𝐎𝐅𝐑 𝐕𝐨𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐬, 𝐇𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐮𝐦 𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐞’𝐬 𝐁𝐞𝐠𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐚𝐫𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐌𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐲

From cash‑poor rent seekers to PE’s liquidity‑starved Franken‑funds, everyone’s begging for one last hit of Fed “free‑money engineering.”

Meanwhile SOFR vol is doing God’s work: Dec26 put spreads price ~1 hike, call‑condors 1–2 cuts. OIS > dots, long‑end skew still put‑rich, JPM longs → neutral. Easing isn’t dead, just shoved right on the curve while hike premium refuses to die. So what’s your insider’s bead @ Kalshi, Polymarket… ?

𝐋𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐬 𝐀𝐈 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐙𝐈𝐑𝐏 𝐕𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠

PE vibes deep in the freeze zone.

Boom‑era assets stuck, bid‑ask canyon‑wide, LPs pounding the table for liquidity.

Evergreen funds ≠ ATMs; retail capital = skittish + redemption‑prone.

DPI in freefall (’22: 0.6% vs ’14: 161%).

Fundraising rolling over since ’23,

mega funds taking the biggest hit.

Software goes from gravy train to battleground: half see AI cliff‑risk, half swear SaaS is mission‑critical + adaptable.

Private credit swelled to $1.8T; defaults set to drift higher.

Core issue: PE promised returns it can’t mark‑to‑market forever.

The bill is arriving… and everyone’s praying for a Fed‑engineered soft landing like cash‑poor, wealth‑rich homeowners.

More via BBG

⬇️ #Privateequity #fund #investor $

Is Oil’s Calm a Mirage?

Oil <$100 because the 3 shock‑absorbers still hold: China’s –3mb/d import hole — Beijing’s planners spinning in circles with weak industry, crushed margins, refinery cuts to stay alive, inventory draws, FX stress, and limp consumer fuel demand; US jawboning draining weekend risk; and Gulf flows clawing back from ~1mb/d → 2.5mb/d via “dark” India‑bound transits + pipelines. But OECD stocks sliding toward 2.3bn bbl and Cushing flirting with critical lows = the real tail risk. Physical models flash $150–$160 once inventories breach the floor.

📰More via WSJ

https://x.com/wsj/status/2065814893089919240?s=46