#ennovance

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐈 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐱 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐦: 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐩 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐬?

S&P 500 earnings have gone fully parabolic ~60% above trend today, with Wall St. forecasting 85% next year and 100% by 2028.

EPS has never been >44% above trend post‑WWII.AI hyperscalers now run capex‑heavy, low‑moat businesses.

A 1‑GW data center may cost $80–100B but generate only $10–12B/yr. an 8–10yr payback, longer than GPU lifecycles.

What happens if hyperscaler capex slows and the circular revenue loop between cloud and chips breaks, do today’s parabolic earnings snap back to trend hard?

ht: Reuters/bbg/FT #RiskArb #Vol #investor @ennovance

𝐔𝐒 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐧𝐚𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐭 (𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 ’𝟐𝟔):

• July SAAR: 16.3mm — demand still holding

• Hybrids: ripping (+20% YoY)

• EVs: collapsing (‑42% YoY)

• Segment losers: Luxury cars, CUVs, Large SUV

• Segment winners: Small/Mid SUV, Small Pickup, Minivan

• CUVs: Japanese OEMs own the segment (45% share)

• LTM trend: US auto demand drifting lower

#auto #lightvehicle #car #consumer $ @ennovance

𝐌&𝐀 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤: North American M&A cooled to $273bn in July (vs $324bn in June), but the 6‑mo rolling avg remains elevated. Pipeline still massive at $560bn EV, highest since 2018.

Implied IG funding = $224bn, led by Health Care ($50bn), Food & Bev ($40bn), Media (~$35bn).

July IG M&A supply only $2bn → latent issuance risk into ’26–’27?

#mergerArb #PrivateEquity #HedgeFund @ennovance

July = stress‑test of 2026’s crowded winners.

YTD leaderboard still led by Semis, KOSPI, Brent, WTI, Nikkei, but positioning fragility fully exposed.

#RiskArb #hedgefund $ @ennovance

#Productivity: Token burn is outrunning revenue; ~30%+ of AI spend looks non‑returning; 90% of execs still see no productivity gains; org‑capital investment has slid toward ~5% of GDP; unlocking AI’s upside likely requires trillions in intangible rebuilds.

AI capex is tracking ~$1T global, with US spend rising 1.8% → 2.8% of GDP by 2028, a textbook GPT‑cycle ramp.

The macro risk isn’t the familiar US regulatory overhang (those concerns rhyme with every prior platform technology shift), it’s a China cheapification shock: accelerated IP‑theft, ultra‑low‑price LLP hardware, and unregulated compute‑resource theft + parallel counterfeit production (“CRT + C/P”) that could collapse the AI cost curve in weeks, not decades, replaying Japan’s steel‑dumping dynamic but on a hyperscaler‑speed clock.

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2079570255760826803?s=46

#AI #investor ht: MCO/Economist/boa @ennovance @mohossain

🇺🇸 American AI didn’t “just happen”, it’s the product of massive R&D spend, elite talent, and real risk-taking. Calling that “hegemonism” while bulk-distilling US frontier models isn’t competition, it’s IP theft.

Funny how China picked tech to raid now, the least regulated sector in America (after real estate, friendly to the EB-5 boss). Guess copying is easier when there’s no red tape to slow you down. Try that with high-value Industrials like aircraft engines or Financials (excluding repeat offenders like TD via Canada, or the likes…) and see how far “distillation” gets you.

https://x.com/mohossain/status/2081894146713772111?s=46

🇨🇳China Vows Response to US Sanctions Threat Against AI Firms [for IP-Theft]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-27/china-vows-response-to-us-sanctions-threat-against-ai-firms

What Is AI Distillation and Why Is It Raising Alarm?: Explainer

Profit margins soared while real wages hit snooze, the kind of divergence only a CEO could explain with a straight face.

#investments #Productivity $ @ennovance

K-shape M&A: Corporate Megadeals Surge as Sponsored Dealmaking Slumps

#privateequity #investor #valuation @ennovance