The resurface of Virtual Reality (VR) in the eyes of mainstream media and general public as an entertainment medium has sparked much debate concerning the future of this once-fictional technology. To some, it represents the culmination of decades of technological development. Part of an ever-increasing drive to enhance digital experiences of consumers.

Now for the purepose of my arguement I will be looking at the ‘good’ VR headsets and it’s place in the market. The systems that require its own software and unique experiences. Instead of just facilitating a different screen mode as you strap a phone to your face.

VR demonstrates engineers utilizing and merging an amazing range of systems into making virtual reality real enough to escape the ‘uncanny valley.’ Systems such as: A new way of displaying images, so that our eyes register depth and space, surround sound, spacial tracking, interactivity, and many more abstract and technical systems that I lack the understanding of carry the list further. This is all done with the purpose of developing the fidelity and realism of digitally generated experiences.

Now in no way to I doubt, or am I against this amazing utilisation and synergy of technology. It can, and has, demonstrated its importance and relevance in specific areas such as simmulation. Utilised by the military and research programs to help prepare soliders for combat, or provide training by way of simulating real world encounters. Such as medical, mechanical, aviation, excetera scenes that can be recreated in a 3D space. My scepticism however, comes into play when looking at the feasibility for this medium as entertainment, or use as a tool in the home. Similar to how the western world views the domestic use of laptops and smartphones.

Now to understand why I believe it won’t take off, we must first look at the consumer marketplace, and how past ideas and innovations have failed. ESPECIALLY within the entertainment industry, and whether we like it or not, for projects to take off it needs a player base that can provide the financial support to keep pioneering companies deveoping or making new content for VR. For VR as an entertainment source to do this it first needs to have a sizable market. Which means it needs to entice enough people to by into it.

However this is where I believe much of the implications of this model lie. As VR comes with a plethora of cons to turn many consumers away:

  - Firstly, the buy in price. Where if we look at existing entertainment headsets, interactive headsets that combine the systems listed above begin around $600 NZD as a starting price, and thats just sony’s headset as an add on to the playstation 4. Which goes for more than the playstation itself. Ranging to $1500 for an HTC setup, utilising more funstions like spacial movement and interactive controllers. Right to the microsoft hololens and the oculus right going for around $5000 respectively. This immediately diminishes the potential marketing potential to those who can offord to pay for this kind of setup.

 - Motion sickness. Now, I will admit that much of the issues that created the sickness experience have been reduced significantly thanks to very exstensive research and playtesting. However this still serves to effect the market size even more. Especially with the stigma that VR has created in the past years surrounding its user friendliness.

 - Setup. Now while this is limited to only a few of the (semi) wide range of systems on the market. It does come with an exstensive list for the conditions of play. Some going so far to demand a dedicated 3m x 3m space coupled with motion sensors to even utilise in its designed experience.

 - A fundamental lack of developers actually knowing how to utilise this technology for experience. Or even a complete lack of content available to consumers. As a heavily experience reliant setup, there needs to be enough content that makes use of the $600+ that consumers put into the hardware that would warrant the pricetag that it comes with.

So at the end of the day the problem VR has lies less in the limitations of technology (although that is important) but instead it’s ability to capture peoples attention enough to outway many of the ways people reject this medium. Because development of experimental technology requires funding, and funding is provided by consumers. If there is limited consumers, there is limited funding for project, equating in less content for people who have spent the buy-in price experience, which drives even more people away from the medium. Where this cycle will repeat itself untill, as an entertainment device on the entertainment market for the average consumer, It will remain a niche title for a niche audience.

“But just look at the global success of smartphones and computers” I hear you say. While I admit there are examples of technology surpasing all of what was expected of them. I can also quote a number of examples that underwent the exact treatment I outlined above: And that is both the 3D-TV, and the Xbox Kinect. Now both of these examples were, at their time on the market, state of the art applications of merging different fields of technology to enhance the consumers experience with the digital medium. Whether that be the interactivity of the Kinect, or the immersion tried for with the 3D-TV’s. However while both failed because of different processes the end result remained the same:

 - The Kinect failed because of the lack of players that could support new content being created. Ultimately resulting in no more games being created that utilises this technology. Therefore destroying any real reason for new players to invest in this setup without a guarantee of new content.

 - The 3D-TV failed because it failed to generate enough interest in to sell. Where the excitement we once saw for the development of 3D cinema gradually died off. Resulting in a entertainment medium that never went past a simply gimick. Once again only to derive itself a very niche audience.

Now there are many other reasons, however I believ that it is these defining reasons, and all of these combining factors based off of past examples of failed ‘revolutionary’ technology that make me believe VR as an entertainment medium will never be a commonplace technology in the homes of the average consumer.

For those Interested you can see other peoples opinion’s and rambling for either side in these links: (it’s very hard to find articles that aren’t just click-bait pages)

FOR VR - and its applications

 - http://www.thehindu.com/features/metroplus/virtual-reality-now-a-reality/article5982819.ece

Training simulations: https://www.army.mil/article/84453/ || https://www.army.mil/article/84728/DSTS__First_immersive_virtual_training_system_fielded

 - http://www.roadtovr.com/the-3-most-common-arguments-against-vr-and-why-theyre-wrong/

AGAINST VR

 - https://www.pcgamesn.com/how-why-and-when-vr-will-fail

 - http://vrcherries.com/virtual-reality-will-fail/

To be honest i might be a little bias as i am a big fan of virtual reality, i always knew virtual reality was a thing before but i watched a anime about it  ( i know u guys gonna say boo hoo anime but too bad), i was intrigued by it and a automatically looked but about VR and what strides of development has been made in it in this timeline.

When i first came across the articles on oculus rift and saw the video about when playstation was gonna launch their VR system which at time was called project morpheus and now its called Playstation VR, i will not go into detail how the new name is so boring which it is .

to this day their are only three known bigwigs in the VR world  Playstation VR, Oculus Rift and Htc Vive. I have been told by my peers that Htc vive is as close ast it get but i haven't tried it myself yet. 

Most people must be thinking or VR  is dying out and there's no future i have personally come across one of my friend saying that and i totally disagree with him, my opinion is that the full potential of the Virtual has not even been explored yet and if one's full potential has not been explored it can't die. 

Personally i don't require Vr to watch movies as such but gaming in the other hand can blow my mind , just imagine playing your favorite game but not as a second person but becoming the character itself that plays the game, the best example i can think of Is Sword Art Online , it s a anime produced which was a light a light novel at first written by  Reki Kawahara, and illustrated by Abec,then turned in to an anime  ASCII Media Work. The anime is about a vrmmorpg, you must have seen or heard about it since they showed a movie at the events theater not to long ago and now IBm has taken interest in ans used oculus rift and HTC vive to replicate the VR experience of the anime.

Now iBM japan is taking action into recreating the VR experience in the game starting which the Nerve gear they had in the game . If u have time go watch the anime it really shows what VR is capable of and what IBM japan is coming up with  

“IBM Japan has announced Sword Art Online: The Beginning, a virtual reality project that aims to realize the world of the popular Sword Art Online light novel series.Rather than use a controller, the game will be played by moving your body. Reki Kawahara, creator of the Sword Art Online series, calls it “completely different from any game experience so far.”Read more at http://gematsu.com/2016/02/ibm-japan-announces-sword-art-online-virtual-reality-project#tVySbOutUQp69RqK.99

It is the year 2030, disasters and wars have destroyed many places around the globe. This is no apocalypse though, the world still thrives and Virtual Reality is used to explore the laser-scanned replicas of the environments which were destroyed. Giving people the chance to “visit” the past or at least a very good approximation of it.

So this is what the future holds. Try to change my view in the comments!

AI Driving cars

My view is that self driving cars are defintely possible but not in the next 13 years.

In saying that the biggest issue stopping this from becoming reality is that in the scenario of a crash or incident where the self driving car is in the wrong, who is to take responsibility? If the driver isn’t deemed responsible then who? The car manufacturer wouldn’t allow them to be responsible due to the possibility of being sued. If the responsibility is still on the driver no matter what wouldn’t that urge drivers to take the wheel instead of letting the car drive? 

Self driving cars in the year 2030

My current view is that by 2030 we still won't be ready for driverless cars. I this is because of a few reasons. firstly when driverless cars are brought out on to the streets, there will be a stage where they will be being integrated with normal road users. Yes driver's cars have been designed to deal with difficult driving situations, but they think literally. Unlike humans who act on feelings and emotions, cars simply can't. I think that there will be a battle with other road users complaining they are too slow along with them causing crashes due to impatient drivers, or not being able to choose between running over the small child or the dog what will it do? I think the only way driverless cars could ever work is if all cars were driverless, to prevent human error. This would be a massive feat, Thinking of turning every persons car driverless before 2030? I don't think so. Its not the cars problem its the peoples. Then there is our spark inside us that just loves being in control, us as humans have come to love and cherish driving wether that being in control or it just being fun. I think we are to attached to cars as humans to take the driving out of cars simply because there is no fun in it. It takes time to change a culture. This is why I think by 2030 we still won't be ready for driverless cars. 

These websites although I’m not sure how credible they are back up my view and also oppose it.

For:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/26/google-self-driving-car-in-broadside-collision-after-other-car-jumps-red-light-lexus-suv

Against:

http://www.businessinsider.com/companies-making-driverless-cars-by-2020-2016-11/?r=AU&IR=T/#tesla-made-a-big-move-this-year-to-meet-its-goal-of-having-a-fully-self-driving-car-ready-by-2018-1

I couldn’t find an expert's opinion about my view so I got a few opinions on the future of VR and what the government plans to do for ‘security’ in the future.

My view on VR for the future is that the government is going to use it to spy on us, by using things that ‘everybody’ will have on them it will make things easier and this will be good for the future as it will lower crime rate. Like using laptops and phones to spy on us this will just be a new median used to spy. In the present time, it has been speculated that the government has been spying on us through our laptop and smartphone. The FBI have used this spying technique for terrorism and serious criminal investigations as has told in Washington Post by Marcus Thomas former assistant director of the FBI’s Operational Technology Division in Quantico. But as of right now most evidence from this type of ‘spying’ is not accepted if obtained from an ‘innocent person’ as everyone’s’ innocent until proven guilty’, this happened in a suspected bank fraud case. Right now, some hackers can use this to spy on people and use this for blackmail in the future and has grown in the past year. So right now, it’s a very controversial topic but that doesn’t mean they won’t perfect spying through computers/smartphones for the future.

The future of VR is uncertain but right now the plan is for it to be more than a game system, Mark Zuckerberg is wanting a Facebook Oculus acquisition, “This is just the start. After games, we’re going to make Oculus a platform for many other experiences. I imagine enjoying a court side seat at a game, studying in a classroom of students and teachers all over the world or consulting with a doctor face-to-face just by putting on goggles in your home”. “Even if visiting Paris for real life is something that’s better [than doing it with VR] it’s not something that eight, nine, ten billion people in the world are going to be able to do” said Luckey, Note, but Google has already been trying to put VR in schools for ‘filed-trip simulation’ with google Cardboard headsets. Not ever ones have a great view for VR, Pixar’s co-founder Ed Catmull has cast doubt on Pixar’s future using VR and narrative fiction “It’s not storytelling. People have been trying to do [virtual reality] storytelling for 40 years. They haven’t succeeded”. These plans are for the near future so I think that advances in 2030 will be far beyond our comprehension but I feel like the government will have a hold on how they use their spyware techniques. In the future, I feel like they will use this to find and stop major crimes and will help protect us in the future.

References

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/279692/uk-government-convinced-vr-is-the-future-of-creati.html

http://www.thedrum.com/news/2016/07/05/why-government-thinks-vr-future-uks-creative-industry

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/07/virtual-reality-future-oculus-rift-vr

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/11/even-bugs-will-be-bugged/501113/

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/03/whats-next-in-government-surveillance/385667/

http://www.theverge.com/2013/7/16/4526770/will-the-nsa-use-the-xbox-one-to-spy-on-your-family

27/03/2017

Hacking Self Driving Cars will be a huge concern in 2030.

In the year 2030 one large concern that would affect an increasing consumer base is the hack-ability of self driving cars. As self driving cars steadily increase throughout the world many consumers will be largely concerned as to the safety in the self driving capabilities. Hackers already will be able to access not only every control in the car but also prematurely activate emergency evasion maneuvers as well as take over the vehicle completely by remotely steering it possibly even used as an assassination tool. Privacy is becoming less of a commodity in the 21st century and as time passes more and more concerns will be raised as to the limit of privatization to ones life.

Surprisingly I could not find any authoritative sources that signified any rejection of my belief.

Authoritative source that supports my belief:

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE in 2030

http://www.cleverbot.com/

Is an example of an artificial intelligence that learns as it interacts with people, absorbing more and more information as people react to its responses.I believe that in the year 2030 it is a very likely possibility that artificial intelligence will become so highly informed and accurate that they will eventually be able to internalise all forms of information to the point where they will be able to predict future events by identifying the patterns in the nature of human evolution. AI's will create predictions that will have the backing of countless Petabytes of information that have all been critically evaluated and refined to formulate the world's most accurate information based ideas and predictions ever known. With the rapid development of technology over the last 80 years, I believe AI's  will develop to a such a point, that they will have the hardware and software capable of internalising and formulating all of the information on the internet, past police records and latest global updates. With all this information sourced within this one mind, it will have the information and comprehension to generate predictions based on such a wide bubble of information that it's mental internalising capabilities will far surpass the abilities of the human mind. If anyone has ever seen the Manga/film Ghost in the shell, the MAGI machine that basically runs their government is basically an AI with inhuman comprehension and prediction capabilities and this is the same style I believe is up and coming in our foreseeable future. 

The time frame of this unfolding in the next 13 years may be a bit of a long shot, but I strongly believe that sometime in the next foreseeable future (my lifetime) AI's will develop into such monumental feat of human engineering that its capabilities and potential will have a cataclysmic effect on the way we live our everyday life.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/babak-hodjat/artificial-intelligence-w_1_b_8894418.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near

This website and book supports my claims to the recognisable effects that AI's will have on our lives in the next 25 years.

In terms of a disagreement with my predictions, this website explains an interesting topic to reconsider the metrics in which we determine how close AI's are to human intelligence and what scaling system we base their advancements on.