Just a quick note on the UK deaths stats yesterday (30/12/21)- 332 deaths were reported, which sounds very high.
This is because deaths aren’t always reported/recorded over the Christmas period, so yesterday was a “catch up” day.
Looking at deaths by specimen date (i.e. the day people died), we can see in the week leading up to Christmas there was an average of 98 deaths per day.
Not all deaths get reported until up to 5 days afer the death, so we don’t have complete post Christmas data yet- but on the 28th we already have 90 deaths reported.
It’s very hard to draw conclusions from any of this (so I’m not going to)- but it’s worth bearing in mind that with other variants, we didn’t see the impact on the death rate until about 4 weeks to a month after the first infections. I would say the majority of deaths we are seeing now will still be from Delta or other variants.
I would say we won’t really see the impact of Omicron (positive or negative) on the death rate until next week. I strongly hope that vaccination and improved treatments mean we never see the types of numbers that we saw in previous waves dying.