The forecast was not wrong. It was never allowed to be independent.
Our team reviewed a demand-planning problem at a manufacturer whose newest product missed its forecast badly first high enough to build unsellable inventory, then, after a correction, low enough to risk a stockout. The forecasting method looked reasonable on paper. The real issue was simpler and easier to miss: the demand forecast and the sales target were functionally the same number, carried over from a method built for a stable product with years of history behind it.
Once a target and a forecast are allowed to be identical, nothing can catch a miss early. Everyone downstream is reacting to what the company wants to happen, not what the market is doing.
The fix did not require new data. The company was already collecting the signal that mattered, it just had never been connected to the forecast. Worth asking of any number in your own org: is this an independent read of reality, or just a target wearing a different label?
We documented the fuller analysis here: Read Medium article
