May 9
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What are the odds that the supreme leader escapes to Russia or China like Assad and there is change in Iran like Syria
Zero chance. Ayatollah Khamenei is not Bashar al-Assad. Khamenei is a true believer who expects to be martyred, and in fact, welcomes it. Khamenei was a fighter -- he was arrested and probably tortured and eventually exiled by the Shah of Iran. He helped launch the Iranian Revolution and overthrow the Shah, then became President when his predecessor was assassinated, and almost immediately was nearly assassinated himself by a bomb that left him severely wounded to this day. That was in 1981 and he recovered and kept on serving as President while Iran fought a brutal war against Iraq. This is not a nepo dictator who inherited daddy's regime. When Ayatollah Khomeini died, Khamenei was quickly chosen as Supreme Leader and he's held on to that position for 35+ years. And when they say "Supreme Leader", they mean it. He's in charge of the executive branch, legislative branch, and judicial branch of the Iranian government. He chooses the candidates who can even run for President of Iran. He's the Commander-in-Chief of all of Iran's armed forces. Oh, and he's also the religious leader for the Shia branch of Islam in Iran, so he's also a theocratic leader. The Ayatollah is a guy who famously lives a very ascetic and religious-based life, so he's not worried about loading billions of dollars onto planes and helicopters so he can buy a nice penthouse in Moscow like the Assads. If he wasn't 86 years old and crippled from that 1981 assassination attempt, he'd probably be leading Friday prayers and daring the Israelis to take him out.
Iran is not Syria. Iran is going to fight. It's going to fight Israel and, if we attack them, Iran is going to fight the United States. There have always been deep divisions inside Iran, so there was a question whether the Iranian people would rise up if there was some destabilization of the regime, but Israel keeps taking out military commanders and Iran just keeps filling the vacancy. And there was an article in the New York Times today that suggests that the attacks are unifying Iranians (gift link to bypass paywall), not opening a path for opposition to overthrow the regime:
"Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a reformist politician and a former vice president, said in a telephone interview from Tehran that Israel had miscalculated Iranians' reaction to the war. Mr. Abtahi said that the deep political factions that are typically in sharp disagreement with one another had rallied behind the supreme leader and focused the country on defending itself from an external threat. The war has 'softened the divisions we had, both among each other and with the general public,' Mr. Abtahi said. Israel's attacks have set off a resurgence of nationalism among many Iranians, inside and outside the country, including many critical of the government. That sense of common cause has emerged in a torrent of social media posts and statements by prominent human rights and political activists, physicians, national athletes, artists and celebrities. 'Like family, we may not always agree but Iran's soil is our red line,' wrote Saeid Ezzatollahi, a played with Iran's national soccer squad, Team Melli, on social media. Hotels, guesthouses and wedding halls have opened their doors free of charge to shelter displaced people fleeing Tehran, according to Iranian news media and videos on social media. Psychologists are offering free virtual therapy sessions in posts on their social media pages. Supermarkets are giving discounts, and at bakeries, customers are limiting their own purchases of fresh bread to one loaf so that everyone standing in line can have bread, according to videos shared on social media. Volunteers are offering services, like running errands to checking on disabled and older residents... ...Narges Mohammadi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and the country's most prominent human rights activist, has spent decades in and out of jail, pushing for democratic change in Iran. But even she warned against the attacks on her country, telling the BBC this past week that 'Democracy cannot come through violence and war.'"
Vyacheslav Leontyev was widely seen as knowledgeable about the secret wealth of Russia’s top elite.
The latest victim of what some people call Sudden Russian Death Syndrome is publisher Vyacheslav Leontyev who fell seven stories to his death on Saturday evening in Moscow.
Starting (coincidentally!) around the time Putin's full scale invasion of Ukraine began, an unusual number of important Russians have met unexpected and unusual deaths. A disproportionate number have fallen from windows.
Vyacheslav Leontyev, 87, was the secretive head of the Pravda publishing house, historically the main organ of the Soviet Communist Party, which continues to maintain strong Kremlin ties. Leontyev had served as the head of the newspaper long after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. He was widely seen as having knowledge about the secret wealth of Russia’s top elite. Authorities are investigating whether his death on Saturday evening was accidental, a suicide, or involved foul play. Exiled Russian journalist Andrey Malgin commented on Leontyev’s death, saying: “The window falls continue. Leontyev fell from a window. He was found near his home on Molodogvardeyskaya Street, where he lived.” Malgin, who knew Leontyev well, added: “He gave the impression of a sort of underground millionaire. He also knew a lot about the party’s money — the Pravda publishing house was the most profitable enterprise in the business empire of the CPSU [Communist Party of the Soviet Union] Central Committee.”
Leontyev knew where the Kremlin skeletons were hidden. Now he'll be a skeleton himself before long.
Perhaps related: A few weeks ago somebody tried to poison Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad. Last year al-Assad fled to Moscow from Damascus as insurgent troops were closing in on him.
Deposed Syrian Dictator Poisoned Under Putin’s Nose: Watchdog
Although al-Assad had been in critical condition, he has recovered from the poisoning.
The removal of Bashar al-Assad from the presidency of Syria has left a lot of unanswered questions in the Middle East, but however those que
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BIRDS OF A FEATHER...
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Syria is riddled with damaged and destroyed infrastructure following over a decade of war, a factor inhibiting many refugees from being able to return.
Syria is riddled with damaged and destroyed infrastructure following over a decade of war, a factor inhibiting many refugees from being able to return.