#availability bias

The Lenses That Shape Our World

''We empathize more with Anne Frank than with a similar girl who was immediately arrested and sent to Auschwitz. Compared to other detentions, Anne Frank’s is an exception. Of course, the availability bias also plays a role. Anne Frank’s story is known worldwide through her diary. Most other detentions are forgotten and therefore not available to us.''

''...the availability bias can lead into the false consensus effect. Whoever deliberates on a question can easily recall their conclusions (they are available). The person wrongly assumes that these findings will be as readily available to someone else. The self-serving bias also influences the false-consensus effect. Whoever wants to present something in a convincing manner does well to tell themselves that many (maybe even the majority) share their view and that their ideas will not fall on deaf ears. Philosophy deems the false-consensus effect “naive realism”: People are convinced that their positions are well thought out. Whoever fails to share their views will see the light if they reflect and open their minds sufficiently.''

''What is more likely, that a seven-letter word randomly selected from a novel would end in ing or has the letter “n” as its sixth letter? This highlights both the availability bias and the conjunction fallacy. All seven-letter words ending with ing have the letter “n” as its sixth letter, but not all with the letter “n” as its sixth letter end in ing. Again, the driving force for the conjunction fallacy is the availability bias. Words ending with ing come to mind more easily.''

''...people have some information they can count well and they have other information much harder to count. So they make the decision based only on what they can count well. And they ignore much more important information because its quality in terms of numeracity is less—even though it’s very important in terms of reaching the right cognitive result. ...we try not to be like that. We have Lord Keynes’ attitude, which Warren quotes all the time: ‘We’d rather be roughly right than precisely wrong.’ In other words, if something is terribly important, we’ll guess at it rather than just make our judgment based on what happens to be easily countable.''

''We attach too much likelihood to spectacular, flashy, or loud outcomes. Anything silent or invisible we downgrade in our minds. Our brains imagine showstopping outcomes more readily than mundane ones. We think dramatically, not quantitatively.''

''Are there more English words that start with a k or more words with k as its third letter? Answer: More than twice as many English words have k in the third position than start with a k. Why do most people believe the opposite is true? Because we can think of words beginning with a k more quickly. They are more available to our memory.