#adam gray

Nancy Pelosi was an incredible Speaker.

She didn’t let anything go to the floor unless she knew that she had the votes to pass it. It was masterful.

But you don’t really hear people talk about her when she was minority leader, right?

That’s because she didn’t really have much power.

She didn’t get to choose when something came to the floor.

She couldn’t wait till she had enough votes to kill something the majority wanted to pass. That’s not how it worked.

We don’t know what Hakeem Jeffries will be like as a Speaker.

Maybe you’re right. Maybe he will bring things to the floor he doesn’t have the votes for. Maybe he will work with Republicans on things we really don’t need to work with Republicans on.

But, he learned from Pelosi, so I doubt it.

Right now, he is minority leader.

Speaker Mike Johnson chooses what comes to the floor and what doesn’t. And he definitely didn’t learn from the Nancy Pelosi school of speakership.

Jeffries does his best. And that’s all he can do.

There are several Democrats who vote with Republicans between 10 and 20% of the time, it feels like.

Jeffries could make the most compelling argument in history — I’m sure he and several other members, including whip Katherine Clark have — and it wouldn’t matter.

These reps think they know what is best for them, for getting reelected and for their constituents. And that’s that.

Short of taking a page out of the fascist playbook and literally bribing or threatening them, they’re not budging.

Is that on Jeffries? Is that on Democrats at large?

I certainly don’t think so. And I don’t understand why anyone else does either.

Sometimes it feels like social media reads too many science fiction books.

It’s almost like there’s this assumption that we live in an episode of Black Mirror where as leader of the minority party, Jeffries has a switchboard with the name of each member on it.

He is the only one with access to the switchboard. And it has several buttons. “AIPAC,” “ICE,” “SAVE Act” and he pulls a lever to determine who should support a given Republican bill.

Luckily we don’t live in that made up episode of the Black Mirror. We live in a world where we still have free will and Democrats are not a cult.

And that means that there are a handful of Reps who do not vote like we want them to. And some of those are frustrating, like Adam Gray, who is about to be in a safe Dem district.

And some of those are like Don Davis, who is in a very Trumpy area probably does need to vote these ways to stay in office — and we NEED him to stay in office. (I mean, we need both of them, but, votes like this will no longer help Gray like it might help Davis.)

We are a big tent party. And until the Republican party sorts its shit out, we’re gonna continue to be.

But that’s not Jeffries’ fault.

Jeffries leads 212 separate humans, not 212 homogenous robots.

And given that, it’s INCREDIBLY impressive what he and Whip Clark have been able to do. That on a lot of really big monumental issues they’ve gotten the Goldens and the Jayapals alike to vote in line with each other.

The amount of discharge petitions that have passed the House (most years there are none) and the incredible task forces he’s put together, choosing the perfect members to chair each one, are pretty remarkable.

It’s easy to shit on Jeffries and Democrats at large. It’s the popular thing to do.

It’s harder to praise him for doing everything he has done as minority leader. It’s hard to accept that we are the minority and his ability is incredibly limited.

It’s hard to accept that because we are in the minority the votes of these more moderate Dems are much more visible and infuriating than if we were in a comfortable majority.

It’s frustrating to have to acknowledge that Jeffries has no say as to what comes to the floor or if we have enough Dems to kill something.

But just cause it’s hard doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it anyway.

We HAVE to win in November. And that means that once the primary is over, the Dem who is left standing MUST get elected (except in certain cases where the Independent is more electable, if that’s your district, you already know.)

That means reelecting Don Davis and Adam Gray and Vicente Gonzalez etc. And for the ones that haven’t had their primary yet, voting for the person you want but accepting that if he doesn’t win, you will have to vote for Marie Glusenkamp Perez again in November too.

And it means not blaming Jeffries for any of it.

Jeffries isn’t a fascist and isn’t a cult leader. He and Whip Clark can’t force these members to do anything they don’t want to do. But what they HAVE been able to do deserves support and praise, cause I really don’t know if a different minority leader would have been equally as successful.

Our voices are our superpower, so let’s use them to change the narrative.

Imagine how popular Democrats could be if the focus was on praising them when they did the right thing, not working overtime to seek out things they may have done wrong.

Just some food for thought.

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LOOK AT THIS POOKIE 🤧

The last US House race in the 2024 election has been decided, and the seat is a flip for Dems. Adam Gray has defeated incumbent Republican John Duarte in CA-13.

Democrat Adam Gray, a former five-term Assemblymember who lost a bid for Congress in 2022, has unseated incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) in the closest House race — and the last to be called — in the nation this election cycle. Duarte, a farmer turned politician, phoned his challenger just after 5 p.m. to concede the race. “That’s how it goes,” said Duarte, who fell 187 votes short of retaining his seat in the 13th Congressional District. “I’m a citizen legislator, and I didn’t plan on being in Congress forever. But whenever I think I can make a difference, I’ll consider public service in different forms, including running for Congress again.” Duarte defeated Gray by 564 votes two years ago in what was then the second-closest race in the nation. “The Congressman was very gracious and I appreciated the call,” said Gray. “We had a quick chat. He wanted to make sure that we don’t drop any of the work already done here in the Valley.”

At least Duarte wasn't a sore loser like Trump in 2020.

The official margin won't be published until Thursday but it probably won't be far from the current 187.

So with the victory of Adam Gray in California, this leaves Republicans with 220 House members and Democrats with 215. This represents a gain of 2 seats for Dems over the 2022 House results.

But because of the departure of Matt Gaetz,the GOP will begin the 119th Congress with just 219 seats. And with the departure of Mike Waltz (FL-06) and Elise Stefanik (NY-21) to join the Trump administration in the winter, the GOP will be down to 217 seats.

CA-13 was one of three House races to be decided by fewer than a thousand votes. 187 is below the number of students in my HS graduating class.

Jay Kuo at The Status Quo:

There’s great news out of California about the election. Yes, the election! Votes are still being counted in California in two tight House races. Democrat Derek Tran leads his opponent, the very Trumpy and scandal-plagued Michelle Steel in CA-45, and is expected to prevail. Some have already called the race for him based on which votes remain to be counted and the direction things have consistently gone. In CA-13, the closest race in the country and against most expectations, Democrat Adam Gray just pulled ahead by around 182 points and is now also slightly favored to win.

As Rep. Robert Garcia noted, if this holds, California will be a bright spot in this election: Democrats will have held every seat in the state’s congressional delegation while flipping three Republican ones. [...] While such claims are nonsense, the right does have some cause to be upset by the actual results. Assuming these races wind up adding two more seats to the Democratic side, the GOP House majority will be 220 to 215, the narrowest House majority ever to begin a session. And that spells a world of trouble for Speaker Mike Johnson.

[...] On the contrary, the extended counting period is specifically designed to lessen the possibility of fraud.

[...]

Counting votes, California style

California can sometimes seem too laid back and chill, especially as it makes the rest of the nation await the final outcome of an election that happened more than three weeks ago. And yet, votes are still coming in, so what gives? Does the far right have a point here? No, as usual, they don’t. The claims of fraud are easily debunked and fact checked. California is one of the few states that mails ballots to all registered state voters. And it has a very liberal ballot return policy: Ballots may arrive up to a week after Election Day, in this case November 12, so long as they were postmarked by Election Day. But what accounts for the next 10 days of delays in the final count? It’s all about verifying signatures. Republicans are constantly demanding that mail-in ballots be perfect in every way, and they have gone to court to enforce this. They must be aware that with mail-in ballots, voters’ signatures may fail to match what the county has on file for them. This happens often with older voters who have trouble writing their names, or even with younger voters who are more used to signing digitally using their index finger rather than a pen. Given this issue, California decided that rather than throw out those ballots, it would provide voters additional time to “cure” any defects on them. There are armies of volunteers in these counties whose job is to personally contact voters whose ballot poses an issue and urge them to come in and cure the problem. With limited staffing, this process can take weeks. It’s usually a few hundred or even a few thousand ballots from each county, and in a normal race that wouldn’t make much of a difference. But in the case of CA-45 and CA-13, it makes all the difference in the world. In sum, the process can take weeks because

California mails ballots to all registered voters;

Mail-in ballots often have issues such as non-matching signatures; and

The state provides an opportunity for voters to cure defects.

It’s not fraud. It’s a careful effort to prevent fraud, while not disenfranchising any registered voters due to a clerical issue.

[...]

If Tran and Gray win as expected, the House will technically be at 220 to 215, the narrowest margin since 1930. But remember: Matt Gaetz resigned his seat after being nominated as Attorney General, and he isn’t coming back after flaming out. He has joined George Santos and Rudy Giuliani among the disgraced politicians who are selling videos to fans on Cameo, the Only Fans for fallen D.C. officials. That means in the first few weeks, assuming full attendance, the balance will be 219 to 215. With these numbers, Republicans can only afford to lose one vote on any measure. If they lose two, the count goes to a 217 to 217 tie, meaning it fails. That is going to make for an interesting Speaker vote at the start of the session. Johnson’s position is so weak, he will likely have to concede significant power to the far-right once again, including handing out plum committee positions that would allow extremists to control the agenda.

But wait, there’s more! Trump genuinely freaked Johnson out earlier by naming two other House members, Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) to positions in his administration. Johnson reportedly had to beg him to stop poaching GOP House members, or he’d outright lose his majority. With Gaetz’s resignation and the loss of two House seats until they can be filled by special election, the balance of power will be 217 to 215 for many weeks. Assuming full attendance, that would mean any single GOP member could sink any bill assuming the Democrats unite behind House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). That’s a lot of power to give the congressional bomb throwers on the right. And it will make passing much of Trump’s agenda really difficult if not impossible, including extension of the Trump tax cuts for the wealthy; gutting the ACA, Social Security and Medicare; and authorizing billions of dollars to build mass detention centers for undocumented migrants. This underscores how every single vote counts, and how the hard work of volunteers out in CA-45 and CA-13, who doggedly pursued voters to come cure their ballots, could pay huge dividends. If they remain disciplined, House Democrats could use the GOP’s own narrow margin against it to block the very worst of the far right’s wrecking ball agenda.