#$pzza

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Cigna, Ticker: $CI

Cigna, $CI, comes into the week at a 10 month high. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. Look for a move over resistance to participate…..

Fiserv, Ticker: $FSIV

Fiserv, $FSIV, comes into the week moving higher and at short term resistance. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and moving up. Look for a break of resistance to participate…..

First Solar, Ticker: $FSLR

First Solar, $FSLR, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. Look for a break of resistance to participate…..

Papa John’s, Ticker: $PZZA

Papa John’s, $PZZA, comes into the week at short term resistance. It has a RSI rising into the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up and heading to positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

T-Mobile, Ticker: $TMUS

T-Mobile, $TMUS, comes into the week at resistance. it has a RSI rising in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the first Quarter of 2022 in the books, saw equity markets face some profit taking after a strong move higher.

Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil pulls back in its trend higher. The US Dollar Index looks to consolidate its move higher while US Treasuries bounce in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation while Emerging Markets bounce in their downtrend.

4 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Gilead Sciences, Ticker: $GILD

Gilead Sciences, $GILD, comes into the week at resistance after rounding out a low. The RSI is rising into the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

KBR, Ticker: $KBR

KBR, $KBR, comes into the week at an all-time high. The RSI is moving into overbought territory with the MACD positive and rising. Look for continuation to participate…..

NXP Semiconductor, Ticker: $NXPI

NXP Semiconductor, $NXPI, comes into the week moving higher towards the prior top. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and flat. Look for continuation to participate…..

Papa John’s, Ticker: $PZZA

Papa John’s, $PZZA, comes into the week moving higher. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone and the MACD is positive and moving higher. Look for continuation to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the November options expiration in the books, saw equity markets looking mixed with large caps and tech strong but small caps showing weakness.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its move higher while Crude Oil pulls back in its uptrend. The US Dollar Index continues to look strong with more upside while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate as well while Emerging Markets pullback in a bull flag.

Domino’s doesn’t sell pizzas; it sells intellectual property to franchises, and very few business models are better. The company is taking share from peers.

February 29, 2016

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By The Valuentum Team

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) offers investors one of the best business models, and the company garners one of the ‘Highest Rated’ economic castles in our coverage universe. That means that for each dollar of capital it invests the company generates gobs and gobs more, so much that it is more than almost any other company that we follow. The franchiser really sets the standard with respect to what we define as a pure “Economic Castle.”

Want to learn more about what an Economic Castle means? Please have a read here.

Not only did the pizza giant raise its dividend nearly 23% February 25, but the company beat expectations on both the top and bottom-line in its reported fourth-quarter results. It’s hard to believe, but domestic same-store sales grew more than 10% in the quarter versus the year-ago period and 12% for the full-year. This is incredible – Domino’s is not a new concept, but Americans seemingly can’t get enough of good pizza, and the franchiser’s efforts to “get things right” have resonated in a gigantic way. Its international division also performed well, with same-store sales growth of 8.6% in the quarter and 7.8% for the full year. By comparison, Yum! Brands’ (YUM) Pizza Hut Division Sales and Papa John’s (PZZA) system-wide North America and International segments recorded same-store sales increases of 1%, 1.9%, and 5.3% during the period. Domino’s is taking share.

Unlike those of McDonald’s (MCD) where there seems to be a lot of unrest, at least prior to the company’s most recent same-store sales performance, the store economics of Domino’s around the world are fantastic, and management pointed to a “positive cycle” as “the momentum continued through 2015.” It’s hard to find much not to like in the company’s fourth quarter that saw revenue advance more than 15%, which Domino’s leveraged into an impressive 30%+ increase in net income in the period. Fiscal 2015 brought in nearly $230 million in free cash flow, and while the company’s recapitalization plan has leveraged up the balance sheet ($2.24 billion in total debt), we have no concerns about its credit strength given its free cash flow generating capacity.

Domino’s may not be one for income investors looking for a large quarterly payment right now, but we’d love to include this one in either the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio or Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at the right price. Shares surged on the trading session February 25. For more information, access the landing page of Domino’s at Valuentum here.

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5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ticker: $BMY

Bristol-Myers Squibb, $BMY, has been on the Top 10 list in the recent past, and it finds itself there again as it consolidates near prior highs. There is rising trend support and the momentum indicators, RSI and MACD are both bullish and support more upside.

CF Industries, Ticker: $CF

CF Industries, $CF, is forming a Cup and handle pattern as it consolidates on a shallow pullback from the all-time high. The RSI is bullish and rising while the MACD is rising. Look for a break to new highs to get involved.

CME Group, Ticker: $CME

CME Group, $CME, has had a long trend higher since July 2014, with a short failed break down recently. Now back over that rising support it sports a rising MACD and a RSI that is firmly in the bullish zone, along with Bollinger Bands® that are opening higher. All these support the bullish case continuing.

Mobileye, Ticker: $MBLY

Mobileye, $MBLY, is a popular stock with the momentum crowd, but shows good intermediate prospects as well. After a long pullback in a channel, it found support at the beginning of March and started higher. It has been moving up step wise and is now at the last high after a strong candle Friday. The RSI is bullish and the MACD about to cross up, a bullish signal.

Papa Johns's International, Ticker: $PZZA

Papa Johns's International, $PZZA, has been in a consolidating channel at highs since the beginning of the year. This followed a move higher from October, out of a 5 month consolidation. Hmmm. Friday peeked over the top of the range and held there. The RSI is bullish and the MACD is bullish and rising as well.

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into the Memorial Day Weekend sees the equity markets looking healthy but remaining short of break out levels.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to consolidate with a short term upward bias while Crude Oil consolidated in its uptrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to pullback while US Treasuries bounce in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite is in broad consolidation mode while Emerging Markets consolidate with an upward bias in their uptrend.

Volatility looks to remain subdued with a bias lower keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts are all still more positive on the longer timeframe, but with the SPY and QQQ looking stronger than the IWM. This might yield an opportunity in the IWM on a catch up. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

Papa Johns (PZZA) has been trading in a range for 5 months between $60-$65.  On the back of its earnings report (5/5/15) the stock is now exiting the top end of the base, this is now a fresh breakout. PAPA Johns reported first quarter earnings of $.55 cents compared to $.45 cents in 2014 an increase of 22.2%. First quarter revenues were $432.3 million, a 7.7% increase from the first quarter of 2014.  They also increased their earnings per share guidance for 2015. From a technical perspective the measure move of the base is $5, this gives us an initial target of $70, a move below $65 will put this breakout on hold and move down to $63.26 negates the breakout.

In the chain pizza world, there are three dominating forces:  Pizza Hut, Papa Johns and Dominos.

Today I want to take a look at how these brands are performing in the social sphere (are people talking about them?  Is it positive?) and see if we can find any insights into which of their stocks might be the best bet for future growth. Pizza Hut trying to learn from Taco Bell

This chain is owned by Yum! Brands, which also owns Taco Bell and KFC... both of which seem to be doing better than Pizza Hut, both in terms of sales and social attention:

-- Data from TD Ameritrade social research tab It looks like Pizza Hut is taking a page out of sister-brand Taco Bell's book... when times are tough--- invent a new twist on the old product!  They've added 10 new "flavored crusts" that are getting a little bit of play on social... but NOTHING like the amazing reaction that Taco Bell's Dorito Locos Tacos got.

I wouldn't  be surprised at all if we see Pizza Hut teaming up with a major Pepsi-owned brand (like Doritos, or any Frito-Lay product) in the future to try to give their pies and sales a tasty boost.

Papa John's is always in a fight

Of the three chains, Papa John's has the lowest social sentiment, at just 78% positive.  What's interesting is that the negative commentary has almost nothing to do with the pizza! You see, Papa tends to get himself into trouble with customers by taking up fights with the wrong people.

First, Papa John's publicly opposed Obamacare, which made them an easy target for minor boycotts by the President's political supporters, which seems to have had some impact:

But taking on the President apparently wasn't enough for Papa--- he needed a fight with one of the music industry's biggest stars too:

Of course, a starry-eyed teen delivery driver being stupid and giving Iggy's number to his brother could happen to any company with thousands of employees... but it's how the company handled the social dust-up that turned it into a tsunami of negative attention:

That's right.  They tried to turn a personal-data breach into a witty response.

Not smart.  And the backlash was big, reviving the negativity for Papa John's and putting them back in front-and-center of all the wrong kinds of conversations.

We'll keep an eye on this one... hopefully for Papa their social mentions go back to...you know... actually talking about the pizza.

The Dominos turnaround is real

Dominos gets mentioned the least in social... about 1/6th as many times as Papa Johns (though from what people are saying about Papa, that might not be a bad thing).

The good news?  Dominos has a 92% positive sentiment rating... easily the highest among the three pizza makers.

Most of this can be attributed to their fun commercials, where they make fun of their old selves and are transparent about how they're trying to become better.  People respond to real, especially in social... and Dominos is certainly making it work.

The stock is telling the story as well, with a surge from $75/share just a few months ago to over $100 today.  Consumer behavior translating into stock performance... that's what we're all about!

And the winner is....

The customer.  With three legit competitors vying for your pizza dollar, we are sure to see even more innovations in pizza (yep-- I just typed that) and continued price wars... meaning better pizza at lower prices.

The investor opportunity...

When you think like an investor, you're looking for an edge over Wall St from your normal interactions with brands.  Keep your ears open, and look for shifts in consumer behavior towards or away from any of these three main players.

We will be looking for clues in social that one of these companies is taking significant share, or faltering, and will alert LikeFolio members immediately of the opportunity.

Who can resist pizza? Noone. Not even my superfit health nut wife. And with the Super Bowl this weekend the ads for snacks, beer and pizza are everywhere. one you will see a lot of is from Papa John's as they have had a partnership with the NFL. So with pizza on the rise and Papa John's tied to the big game, how does their stock look? Is it as irresistible as the pizza?

In fact the chart of Papa John's ($PZZA) looks pretty good heading into the big game. It moved higher in mid December to a peak just under 64 out of a base that touched the 20 day SMA. That 20 day SMA has been great support for the stock rise since October. The consolidation under 64 came close to touching the 20 day SMA again last week before the price ran back up to resistance.

While that happened the overbought readings on the momentum indicators works back into normal ranges. The RSI has already reversed back higher and now the MACD is flat, stopping the fall. This sets the stage for the next leg higher. And a break over 64 would carry a target to 72 on a Measured Move. Maybe that will happen before the big game Sunday. Keep an eye on it.