#$ngvc

Grocery stocks gathered some strength towards the end of 2014, but as the holidays ended so did the strength.  Many are just stagnating.  You might think the better word for a grocery store would be rotting.  But that is not the case.  These stocks are not falling fast.  Some minor pullbacks, or sideways consolidation of the latest move up.  The favored term is a 'healthy pause.'  But who wants to own a pause?

There is one stock in this space that is showing some sings of a Spring awakening though.  Fairway Group ($FWM) has been that younger sibling in the grocery space.  Following the others, with a bit of a lag.  But the chart below suggests it is ready to come out of the shadows.

Fairway started 2015 with a move higher but then consolidated the move beginning in mid February.  The difference between it and Whole Foods ($WFM), The Fresh Market ($TFM) and Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ($NGVC) though is that it is breaking the consolidation to the upside.  Time to get on board!  The rising RSI in the bullish zone and the MACD crossed up and rising support the breakout continuing.

The break of the channel targets a Measured Move higher to 8.65.  That is a lot of bananas.  Using a stop under 6 gives a really good reward to risk ratio going forward.  No coupons needed.

Specialty grocery stores have been all the rage with shoppers for several years. Starting with Whole Foods Markets and moving into The Fresh Market their fresh produce and organic growers have left a big mark on the food buying public. Smaller regional grocers are sprouting up around the country now as well.

Despite this popularity their stock prices took a beating in 2014. Many lost over 50% of their value. But that is ending and some of their stocks are starting to rebound again. one that I am watching in Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ($NGVC). The weekly chart below shows the bounce off of a bottom at 16 in October. The rise since is confirming a bearish Shark harmonic that carries a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) at 34.50, still a long way above.

This is the most conservative PRZ and there is a second at 40, and were I instead to start the 'X' at the March high a 3rd at 41.30 and 4th at 48.40. The Bollinger Bands® show a clear change of character from a falling to a basing to a rising channel. The center line, the 20 week SMA (roughly 100 day SMA), is also running higher now with price above it.

Looking more closely at that bottoming pattern reveals a Cup and Handle pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is triggering as price breaks the Handle higher and carries a target to 41. As it starts to trigger it has support for a run higher from the MACD crossing up and the RSI is bullish and rising as well.

Two timeframes, with two types of technical analysis and several indicators all pointing higher. Perhaps 2015 will be a better year for Natural Grocers.