#$crox

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Cboe Global Markets, Ticker: $CBOE

Cboe Global Markets, $CBOE, comes into the week back at resistance with the Bollinger Bands® opening after a squeeze. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD leveling but positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Crocs, Ticker: $CROX

Crocs, $CROX, started higher in April with a gap up and quickly met resistance. It has been consolidating since. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD turning to cross up and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Generac, Ticker: $GNRC

Generac, $GNRC, comes into the week at short term resistance. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone and the MACD is positive and moving higher. Look for a break of resistance to participate…..

Intercontinental Exchange, Ticker: $ICE

Intercontinental Exchange, $ICE, popped out of a symmetrical triangle and stopped short of the target $11 move to 126. It pulled back and comes into the week pressuring resistance with the RSI moving higher and the MASCD crossed up. Look for a move over resistance to participate…..

Tractor Supply, Ticker: $TSCO

Tractor Supply, $TSCO, made a top in May and then pulled back into consolidation. It comes into the week at resistance with the RSI driving higher and the MACD curling to cross up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into the June options expiration week, saw equity markets revving their engines and heating up as they drift around all-time highs.

Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate around 1900 while Crude Oil breaks higher. The US Dollar Index remains consolidating from the downtrend while US Treasuries started a nascent move to the upside. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to consolidate the break higher while Emerging Markets stick in broad consolidation over the long term range.

Wendy’s (WEN): The fast food sector is seeing a bounceback in recent quarters as spending habits shift to value channels. This ongoing transition has helped propel earnings from McDonald’s in the third quarter and is expected to bode well when Wendy’s reports tomorrow morning. Wendy’s recent surge can also be credited to the multi-year brand transformation that includes menu innovations, promotional campaigns and bolder packaging. Meanwhile, the burger chain is heavily invested in expanding its technological presence through a mobile app and self ordering kiosk. Many of these initiatives contributed to a 0.4% increase in same store sales and 370 basis point increase in margins for the second quarter. Analysts are still expecting softer year over year comparisons as its recovery continues to gain steam.

Viacom (VIAB): Mainstream media networks have seen their share of misfortune in recent quarters as cord cutting habits continues to pick up pace. This has reflected weak earnings from notable networks like Disney which is seeing a sharp downturn in ESPN subscribers and will have an adverse impact on Viacom’s earnings tomorrow. The media conglomerate has posted negative top line growth in 5 of the past 6 quarters thanks in part to tougher competition and cord cutting. Analysts expect this to continue in its upcoming quarterly results, forecasting a 47% decline on the bottom line and 11% on the top. Some of this will be offset by efficient cost controls and operational improvements during the quarter. Key partnerships with Sony and Verizon are worth noting and may be determining factors on Viacom’s return to glory. Investors may overlook these recent indiscretions if management suggests a rumored merger with CBS is on the horizon.

Croc’s (CROX): CROX has had its share of ups and downs in the past few quarters. The shoe maker returned to profitability in the first quarter of 2016 but subsequently posted negative growth on the top line. Expectations are edging lower this quarter as we head into the colder months when Crocs historically have not done as well. Analysts are calling for a 5 cent loss per share on a 7% decline in revenue to $249.31 million. Shares are down 24% in 2016 and historically drop 4% immediately through the print.

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Travel trends appear to be gaining steam this earnings season as evidenced by strong results from the airlines, hotel operators and cruise liners. This bodes well for Norwegian which reports its quarterly results tomorrow before the opening bell. The cruiseliner has benefited from robust year over year comparisons posted by its peers Carnival and Royal Caribbean. Norwegian still faces several near term headwinds that could dent quarterly results including its exposure to European markets and weak FX translation. Europe currently accounts for a third of the company’s capacity and could potentially throw results off course.

I trade intraday futures by reading the tape and looking at historically significant price action levels. I start to really get a feel for the process, but I still trade only one future until the process is internalized. To be able to assess myself I keep a detailed journal where I fill in trade information (entry, exit etc.) and trading information (what did I do well and why; what could I do better and how). My problem is the journaling itself: When I journal "live" I lose focus on the price action and feel that I miss important information; when I journal after market hours it is really easy to forget the actual feelings as they were and instead start writing what I should have done post factum. How would you approach this? Without the journals I'm lost. But I do feel that the market deserves full attention. P.S: Thank you for all the media - Books, blog and videos. I try to mimic your process and I have come to develop a trading style that I truly believe in.

@mikebellafiore

Well this is a good problem to have because you are seeing the immense value of keeping a daily trading journal.  I find it hard to take a developing trader seriously, who does not journal.  Excellent work by you!

I personally prefer to journal live as this helps me focus on my number one goal for trading- improve each day.  But since that does not work for you, let’s consider another solution. 

How about you try and journal after the open, around 11AM, and then before the close, around 2:15PM, and then right after the close, around 4:15PM?

This will enable you to journal during the down times of trading.  And to journal when you memory of your trading is most fresh. 

Try that and let me know how that works for you.

$CROX 12 Puts BUYING Activity expiring on 19th Aug, Vol 1045 22-07

When Michael Bigger of Bigger Capital starts talking shoes, we listen. When he starts talking about publicly traded shoe companies, that is.

This morning he put out an interesting note on Crocs:

We wanted to check to see if his premise is right--- is there really strength in Crocs internet business... does it go beyond what current sales reports are showing?

In other words--- do people actually like Crocs again?

So we took a look at the LikeFolio social data on the brand.  As usual, Crocs gets its share of haters, which keeps sentiment fairly suppressed in the upper 80′s...but what matters most to us here is purchase intent.

Indeed, it looks like Crocs are coming back on Main St as purchase intent volume is rising consistently and fairly dramatically:

Taken from the LikeFolio app

We think it’s pretty safe to say that Mr. Bigger’s premise is spot on.  Perhaps even a little conservative based on the numbers we’re seeing.

The stock isn’t near lows or in a downtrend, so this isn’t a divergence play like we pointed out yesterday is happening with another shoe-maker Michael Kors.

With its investor day meeting next week, we wouldn’t be surprised if the company has something to say that will make investors smile... big.

When it comes to footwear companies, it’s no secret that Nike leads the pack... by a long shot.  In fact, the company made our list of the top performing stocks for sports fans.

But there are some signs that Nike’s dominance might be fading a bit.

Note from the LikeFolio app how Nike’s social sentiment is very high (people love their products)... but social volume is trailing off...

What’s that mean?

Unfortunately for Nike, less people are talking about their brands and products...which generally translates to lower than expected sales figures in the next 3-6 months.

It’s too early to call this a meaningful trend, but we’ll keep a close eye on Nike’s social volume during this critical back to school period.  Another thing we’ll be watching for are upticks in other companies like Crocs or Under Armor, which are doing quite well in social data and could be signaling a shift in consumer preferences.

Their earnings call at the end of last month was not good.  We saw it coming thanks to social data.

But how has Deckers fared since?

Interestingly, it's a continuation of the same phenomenon:  Less people talking about their brands, but the ones that are talking are much more positive.  This is something we see pretty often in social as companies see a major shift in brand performance.

Deckers saw daily social mention volume drop by over 13% in February compared to the previous month.  That's after the nasty drops in the holiday quarter.... not good.

Deckers positive sentiment climbed in Feb, ending the month at a respectable 76.5% positive continuing the trend of more positive chatter about their brands.  As a point of comparison, Crocs ($CROX) positive sentiment is right around 77% as well, but with flat volume trends in January.

People are talking less about UGGs, but are extremely positive about Deckers other brands like Teva.  Full tweet

It makes sense when you think about it... the company is seeing its primary brand in decline, and is likely starting to shift focus onto the smaller, well-liked brands in its stable.

What we're watching for: If we start to see social volume pick back up along with increasing sentiment, we'll know that the company is executing its transition nicely.  On the other hand, if volume keeps dropping, sentiment won't matter much at all.  We need to see if these trends persist into the Spring.

At that point, we can compare purchase intent mention volume with Wall St revenue expectations for 2015 to come up with our next trade on $DECK.  The last one was just too good for us not to!

You might think that it is a no brainer trade to suggest buying Deckers Outdoors ($DECK) and selling short Croc's ($CROX) as the calendar turns from Summer to Fall. Putting away your flip flops and pulling out the Uggs. And I would agree. It is for traders with no brain. Well maybe that is a bit too harsh. But this pairs trade is extended and you are late to the party if looking at it now. In fact.....

....the chart above shows the the relative price action of the two stocks. There has been a subtle up slope since March, but it became very steep in September. So steep that the ratio is now 27% above the 50 day moving average and the RSI is nearly at 90, extremely overbought. An old trader adage is that something overbought can keep getting more overbought, and this could be the case with this pair. But at this extreme is is worth keeping on your radar for a signal of a turn back lower for a mean reversion trade.

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