#$atvi

Activision Blizzard is profitable and its stock $ATVI is profitable for a longer time than 5 years.

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An author Piotr Sienkiewicz

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5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Anthem, Ticker: $ANTM

Anthem, $ANTM, comes into the week at resistance after a shallow pullback. The RSI is strong in the bullish zone with the MACD flat after a pullback and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Activision Blizzard, Ticker: $ATVI

Activision Blizzard, $ATVI, comes into the week after breaking resistance and moving into the gap. The RSI is rising with the MACD curling back higher. Look for continuation to participate…..

BorgWarner, Ticker: $BWA

BorgWarner, $BWA, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has the RSI rising into the bullish zone with the MACD positive and moving higher. Look for a push over resistance to participate….

JB Hunt, Ticker: $JBHT

JB Hunt, $JBHT, comes into the week at resistance. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD level after a pullback. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Momentive Global, Ticker: $MNTV

Momentive Global, $MNTV, comes into the week breaking short term resistance. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD curling to cross up and positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into the November options expiration week, equity markets showed resilience reversing an early week plunge.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its new uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates at the recent highs. The US Dollar Index also looks to continue its breakout higher while US Treasuries consolidate in their bounce. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to churn sideways while Emerging Markets consolidate in a bull flag over long term support.

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Albemarle, Ticker: $ALB

Albemarle, $ALB, topped in January and then started to pullback. Now it is rounding higher and through resistance. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD climbing. Look for continuation to participate…..

Applied Materials, Ticker: $AMAT

Applied Materials, $AMAT, started higher in November and ran to a top in April. After a pullback it is consolidating at resistance on a move higher. The RSI is rising into the bullish zone with the MACD positive and moving higher. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Activision Blizzard, Ticker: $ATVI

Activision Blizzard, $ATVI, comes into the week with the stock price at resistance. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone and the MACD avoided a cross down and is moving higher. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Eaton, Ticker: $ETN

Eaton, $ETN, has just gone up since making a pandemic low. It comes into the week at a short term resistance with the RSI rising in the bullish zone and the MACD crossing up. look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Illumina, Ticker: $ILMN

Illumina, $ILMN, comes into the week pushing resistance with the RSI rising in the bullish zone and the MACD positive and moving higher. look for continuation above resistance to participate…..

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which since Summer has unofficially begun with the passing of Memorial Day, saw equity markets end the week stronger after large caps rebounded from a weak start.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil moves to new multi-year highs. The US Dollar Index and US Treasuries continue to consolidate in their downtrends. The Shanghai Composite looks ready to continue higher while Emerging Markets resume their uptrend.

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Activision Blizzard, Ticker: $ATVI

Activision Blizzard, $ATVI, rose from a December low to a high in March. It pulled back to the 200 day SMA from there and consolidated through April. It started higher in May but quickly met resistance. That led to another round of consolidation. Friday saw price rise to resistance in this consolidation for the third time. The RSI is bullish and rising and the MACD is turning to cross up. Look for a push over resistance to participate.....

Fiserv, Ticker: $FISV

Fiserv, $FISV, has trended higher since touching the 200 day SMA in November. It had a deep pullback in February before moving to a top in March. Since then the price action has been mainly sideways. Friday it moved up to short term resistance. It has a RSI that is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD moving higher and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate higher.....

JB Hunt Transport, Ticker: $JBHT

JB Hunt Transport, $JBHT, moved higher out of consolidation in November, reaching a peak in January. It drifted lower from there, finding support in April, just above the 200 day SMA. It has pushed up in 2 steps from there to the current resistance where it has consolidated the last few days. The RSI is bullish and the MACD rising. Look for a push over resistance to participate higher.....

PayPal, Ticker: $PYPL

PayPal, $PYPL, rose up out of consolidation and trended higher until November. After a mild pullback it made a higher high in January before another pullback, this time to the 100 day SMA. A bounce found it stall at a lower high and reverse again. A lower low and a lower higher was followed be another lower low to the 200 day SMA in May. From there it has been rising and its making a higher high as it settles at the March top. The RSI is bullish and rising with the MACD moving up. Look for a push through resistance to participate higher.....

Varian Medical Systems, Ticker: $VAR

Varian Medical Systems, $VAR, gapped up in January and ran for 2 days until it topped and reversed. That reversal filled the gap and then bounced to a lower high. It chopped for 2 months until pulling back under the 100 day SMA and settled into the current tight consolidation. Friday it broke that to the upside. The RSI is rising toward the bullish zone and the MACD moving up and near a cross to positive. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which as June begins sees the equity markets looking stronger with small caps and tech leading the way higher.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to move lower while Crude Oil joins it continuing its drop. The US Dollar Index continues to show strength, but pausing in its move higher while US Treasuries are biased lower in a channel. The Shanghai Composite is drifting lower as are Emerging Markets, with the former closing in on a new 52 week low while the latter is just retesting a major break out.

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Akamai Technologies, Ticker: $AKAM

Akamai Technologies, Ticker: $AKAM, started higher in August and progressed in a steady trend higher. In December it gapped up and then started to move sideways. it pulled back in early February to the 50 day SMA and then reversed again to the upside. It ended last week breaking through resistance to a new 52 week high. The RSI is rising and bullish with the MACD also moving higher. Look for continuation to participate.....

Activision Blizzard, Ticker: $ATVI

Activision Blizzard, $ATVI, lifted off its 200 day SMA in December and then rose out of a long consolidation. It made a top at the end of January and pulled back touching the 50 and then 100 and SMA's, before reversing back higher. Now it is back at the prior high with the RSI in the bullish zone and the MACD rising. Look for a break through to participate higher.....

Comerica, Ticker: $CMA

Comerica, $CMA, rose off of a bottom in September and stepped higher. It has pulled back to find support at the 50 day SMA a couple of times along the way, with the latest being in February. Last week it had a minor pullback and then closed with a strong move higher Friday. The RSI is in the bullish zone and the MACD is avoiding a cross down. Look for continuation to participate higher.....

Green Dot, Ticker: $GDOT

Green Dot, $GDOT, went through a long move higher that turned into consolidation in November. It continued sideways for 3 months before a dip lower and then rebound up to the prior consolidation. It gapped higher 2 weeks ago and came back to retest the break out last week, holding over it. Friday saw a stronger candle, boding for a reversal higher. The RSI is bullish and rising with the MACD moving up. Look for a move higher to participate.....

Nutrien, Ticker: $NTR

Nutrien, $NTR, has only been trading for 2 months, the result of a merger, but with price history implied moving backward. The stock took a dive following the merger and then quickly recovered, only to plummet into early February. Since then though it has found support and moved back higher. It consolidated last week after the quick move higher with the RSI turning up toward the bullish zone and the MACD rising. Look for a break higher to participate.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week's list contains the first five below to get you started early. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which as the calendar turns to March sees the equity markets again looked weak only to finish with a strong Friday, like February 9th.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to consolidate in a broad range while Crude Oil may pause in its short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues to consolidate sideways while US Treasuries are consolidating after their move lower. The Shanghai Composite is biased to the downside short term and Emerging Markets look to tighten their broad consolidation at the recent top.

Date Published: 2017-09-25 Preface The months of September and October often times bring volatility -- which is a less scary way of saying, stocks can go down abruptly, although they do historically recover by the end of the year, if not sooner. Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI) is one of the many newly found tech darlings but instead of looking at a trade that bets on optimism (bullishness) ahead of earnings, we have created a new scan for TradeMachine™ members that does not rely on stock direction at all. It's a reminder that we do not need a bull market to persist in order to find strong option strategies. It's this type of strategy that we want to focus on for ATVI. This approach has returned 206.0% with a total holding period of just 156 days, or an annualized rate of 482.0%. That time period has seen 10 winners and 2 losers ahead of earnings. Now that's worth looking into. Activision usually releases earnings in early November, so two-weeks before then would put us in mid October -- let's say about 3-weeks from now. The Trade Before Earnings: When it Works We have looked at pre-earnings straddles before, but it was a very short-term window that we investigated -- namely six calendar days. In this new scan, we want to back-test buying an at the money straddle 14-days before earnings, and then sell that straddle just before earnings. The goal of this type of trade is to benefit from a unique and short time frame when the stock might move 'a lot', either due to earnings anxiety (stock drops before earnings) or earnings optimism (stock rises before earnings), but taking no actual earnings risk. If the stock is volatile during this period, this generally is a winning strategy, if it does not move, this strategy will likely not be profitable and the complete back-test below discusses that possibility. Here is the setup:

We are testing opening the position 14 calendar days before earnings and then closing the position 1 day before earnings. This is not making any earnings bet. This is not making any stock direction bet. Once we apply that simple rule to our back-test, we run it on an at-the-money straddle: RISK MANAGEMENT We can add another layer of risk management to the back-test by instituting and 40% stop loss and a 40% limit gain. If the stock doesn't move a lot during this period and the options begin to decay in value, a stop loss can prevent a total loss. On the flip side, if the stock does move in one direction or another enough, the trade can be closed early for a profit. Here are those settings:

In English, at the close of each trading day we check to see if the total position is either up or down 40% relative to the open price. If it was, the trade was closed. Trade Discovery We want to focus on liquid names and those that have garnered a lot of interest. So, we limited our scan to the tech heavy Nasdaq 100, looked at the '14 Days Pre-earnings Straddle,' and then sorted by the number of wins.

Atop that list sits the gaming tech darling Activision. Here are the scan results:

Returns If we did this long at-the-money straddle in Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI) over the last three-years but only held it before earnings we get these results:

ATVI Long At-the-Money Straddle % Wins: 83.33% Wins: 10 Losses: 2 % Return:  206.0% 

Tap Here to See the Back-test

We see a 206.0% return, testing this over the last 12 earnings dates in Activision Blizzard Inc. That's a total of just 156 days (13 days for each earnings date, over 12 earnings dates). We can also see that this strategy hasn't been a winner all the time, rather it has won 10 times and lost 2 times, for a 83% win-rate. Setting Expectations While this strategy has an overall return of 206.0%, the trade details keep us in bounds with expectations:       ➡ The average percent return per trade was 14.77% over 13-days. But this is our favorite part of the back-test results:       ➡ The average percent return per winning trade was 19.2% over 13-days.       ➡ The average percent return per losing trade was -7.1% over 13-days. Option Trading in the Last Year We can also look at the last year of earnings releases and examine the results:

ATVI Long At-the-Money Straddle % Wins: 100.00% Wins: 4 Losses: 0 % Return:  69.8% 

In the latest year this pre-earnings option trade has 4 wins and lost 0 times and returned 69.8%.       ➡ Over just the last year, the average percent return per trade was 16.9% for each 13-day trade. Stock Chart A two-year stock return chart illustrates the trade rationale: